[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 060907
HLSTAE
FLZ018-019-028-029-034-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ159-160-061715-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 24
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL052021
507 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**Hurricane Watch issued for coastal Dixie County**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Coastal Dixie
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Lafayette

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Coastal Jefferson and Coastal Wakulla
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Taylor
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Dixie, Inland
      Taylor, and Lafayette
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Dixie
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Brooks, Coastal
      Franklin, Inland Jefferson, Lowndes, and Madison

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 460 miles south-southeast of Panama City or about 420
      miles south-southeast of Apalachicola
    - 24.1N 82.4W
    - Storm Intensity 60 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa emerges into the southeast Gulf this morning
and then should track roughly parallel to the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula through late Tuesday night, with some strengthening
anticipated. Elsa is forecast to make landfall as a strong tropical
storm somewhere along the Southeast Big Bend around Wednesday morning
before moving across South Georgia later that afternoon. There is a
slight chance that Elsa becomes a hurricane as it comes ashore. To
account for this possibility, Hurricane Watches have been issued for
the coast from the Suwannee River to Steinhatchee River, and for
waters extending from coastal Dixie County out to 60 nautical miles.
Lafayette County was also upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.
Conditions look to deteriorate across Apalachee Bay and the Southeast
Big Bend as early as Tuesday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across the Southeast Big Bend
and Apalachee Bay on Tuesday night, then into the Eastern Big Bend and
portions of adjacent South-Central Georgia on Wednesday, with
hurricane conditions possible across coastal Dixie County. Strong
winds could cause downed trees, power outages, and loose items blown
around. A storm surge of around 2 to 4 feet is forecast across coastal
areas from Ochlocknee River to Aucilla River and 3 to 5 feet eastward
to the Suwannee River. These values remain heavily dependent on any
track and intensity changes. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated
amounts near 5 to 6 inches will be possible with Elsa. This rainfall
could cause some localized flooding issues across the Southeast Big
Bend. An isolated tornado or two will also be possible across the
Southeast Big Bend and portions of adjacent South-Central Georgia.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across the Southeast Big Bend. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the rest of the Big Bend and South-Central Georgia.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across Eastern Apalachee Bay. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across Western Apalachee Bay.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across far Southeast Big Bend. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across the rest of the area.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
the Southeast Big Bend and portions of South-Central Georgia. Potential
impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind
and allow extra time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit.
Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city in which
you are staying and the name of the county in which it resides.
Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for
instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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