[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 060534
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA NOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
...CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 82.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River,
including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in coastal Georgia, the Carolinas, and the mid-Atlantic
coast should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located by radar from Key West, Florida near latitude 23.9 North,
longitude 82.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the north-northwest near
12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
this morning, followed by a turn toward the north by tonight.  A
north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday.  On the
forecast track, Elsa will pass near the Florida Keys this morning,
and move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later
today and continuing into Wednesday.

Satellite data and NOAA Doppler weather radar in Key West indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through tonight
before Elsa moves inland over Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.  A wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently
measured at the Key West International Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of
central and western Cuba during the next several hours.  Tropical
storm conditions are beginning in the warning area in the Florida
Keys and are expected along the Florida west coast later this
morning.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward
into the Florida Big Bend region tonight and early Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning
late tonight.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through this morning, rainfall of
5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is
expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and
mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands this morning, additional
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with storm total rainfall to 5 inches is
expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low
Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida this
morning and across the Florida Peninsula later today.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart
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