[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 23
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL052021
1151 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

This product covers East Central Florida

**TROPICAL STORM ELSA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northern Lake and
      Southern Lake Counties.

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 370 miles south of Leesburg FL
    - 23.5N 82.3W
    - Storm Intensity 60 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 330 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa has emerged off the north coast of Cuba and into
the Florida Straits. Elsa will move north-northwest near Key West and
the Dry Tortugas overnight and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday. Elsa will turn north late Tuesday morning through evening,
and then northeast, making landfall near the Florida Big Bend late
Wednesday morning. Elsa will cross the northern Florida peninsula by
early Wednesday afternoon.

On its current track, Elsa's strongest impacts will begin to be felt
across east central Florida Tuesday afternoon, lasting into early
Wednesday morning as the system moves northward and parallel to the
Florida west coast.

Stronger squalls from Elsa's outer rain bands will overspread the
Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee region by midday Tuesday, then
spread northward across the remainder of east central Florida Tuesday
evening into early hours of Wednesday morning.

Expect tropical storm force wind gusts in most rain bands and squalls,
gusting as high as 50 to 60 mph in the most intense squalls. Conditions
will also become favorable for tornadoes to develop within these rain
bands across the entire Florida peninsula.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected in many areas, with
isolated higher amounts up to around 5 inches. The highest rainfall
totals are expected to be closest to the track of Elsa's center, over
and adjacent to Lake County. However, some coastal locations could
also receive similar, locally higher amounts.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Lake County, where the
highest potential exists for experiencing sustained tropical storm
force winds up to 40 mph.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across east central Florida, particularly Lake County and
areas near the Kissimmee River.

Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen and overspill
      their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable
      spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.


* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across all of east central Florida.

Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.


* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across Lake
County, possibly extending to the Interstate 4 corridor in Volusia,
Seminole and Orange Counties.

Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across east central Florida, expect strong wind gusts above
tropical storm force in squalls, which will increase in coverage and
intensity.


* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
Expect increasing winds along with some increase in surf, as well as a
strong northward flowing longshore current and numerous, strong rip
currents to develop in the central Atlantic surf zone.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong
gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to
become unsafe.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There will be an increasing threat from tornadoes with this storm,
especially late Tuesday into the overnight hours of Wednesday morning!
Have multiple ways to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter
quickly!


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Cristaldi
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