[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 052047
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

Satellite and radar imagery along with surface synoptic
observations indicate that the tropical cyclone moved inland over
west-central Cuba around 1800 UTC, accompanied by very heavy rains.
Assuming that some weakening has occurred due to the influence of
land, the advisory intensity is set to 45 kt.  An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Elsa this
evening after the center moves into the Florida Straits and will
provide a better assessment of the system's intensity.

The storm appears to be continuing on its northwestward track and
the initial motion estimate is 315/12 kt.  There are no changes to
the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory.  Elsa
should move between the western portion of a mid-level subtropical
ridge extending westward from the Atlantic and a broad low pressure
area near the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast for the next couple
of days.  Later in the forecast period, the system is likely to
accelerate northeastward and move from the eastern United States
to near Atlantic Canada.  The NHC track forecast over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico is practically identical to the one from the
previous advisory, and a little to the left of the previous one
over the eastern United States and the Atlantic.  This is in good
agreement with the now tightly-clustered track model guidance.

Some restrengthening of the cyclone is likely after it moves into
the Gulf of Mexico, but vertical shear associated with a broad
upper-level trough over the Gulf is likely to limit
intensification.  The official intensity forecast is slightly above
the latest model consensus, IVCN.  Around 96 hours, the global
models suggest that the cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so
the forecast shows extratropical transition at that time.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba through
tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over
Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and
southeast Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable
flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida.
Mid- to late-week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina,
North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated
flash and urban flooding.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along
portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday,
and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward
across portions of the Florida Keys and  the Florida west coast
through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 22.7N  81.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 24.1N  82.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 26.1N  83.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 28.2N  83.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 30.6N  83.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  08/0600Z 32.8N  81.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  08/1800Z 35.5N  78.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  09/1800Z 41.5N  69.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1800Z 49.0N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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