[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 21
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL052021
1135 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MARION COUNTY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Central Marion,
      Eastern Marion, and Western Marion

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Central Marion, Eastern
      Marion, and Western Marion

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 610 miles south of Jacksonville FL or about 530 miles
      south of Ocala FL
    - 21.5N 81.2W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to track northward near the Florida west coast of the
peninsula early Tuesday and move into the northern portions of the peninsula late
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some of Elsa impacts will begin to affect the
region as early as Tuesday afternoon and evening with rainbands moving up from the
south. Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph will be possible ahead of Elsa in the showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday. Earliest arrival time of potential tropical storm force
winds in Marion county will be Tuesday evening, but most likely late Tuesday night
and early Wednesday morning. Heavy rainfall and saturated grounds may result in
localized flooding over portions of the area. Rainfall amounts near 2 to 4 inches
with higher amounts to 6 inches are possible. An isolated tornado will be possible
over portions of northeast Florida late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
portions of inland northeast Florida around Marion county. Potential impacts
in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the rest of northeast Florida.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across northeast Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible significant impacts across
portions of inland northeast Florida south of I-10 and along the
coastal counties. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 530 PM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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