[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 051455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

...ELSA NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 81.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been
extended northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay.

The Storm Surge Watch along the west coast of Florida has
been extended northward to the Ochlockonee River.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle
has been extended westward to Indian Pass, Florida.

The government of Cuba has discontinued all watches and warnings
for the Cuban province of Camaguey.

The government of Cuba has changed the Hurricane Warning for the
Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas to a Tropical Storm
Warning, and has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban
province of Artemisa.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of Elsa.  Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 81.2 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) , and this
general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa
is expected to move across central and western Cuba later today and
pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday.  Elsa is then forecast to
move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is expected while the center moves over land.
Slight restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central
and western Cuba today.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the warning area in the Florida Keys tonight and along the
Florida west coast beginning Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the upper Florida Keys by tonight.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Florida Big Bend area beginning
Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Ochlockonee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4
ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will
result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.  Across the
Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This
rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, the
Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week.  Amounts of 2
to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are
expected across Florida and coastal Georgia through Wednesday,
which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected
to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to
5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight
and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the
southern coast of Cuba today.  Swells will increase near the
Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward
along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
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