[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KKEY 050344
HLSKEY
FLZ076>078-051200-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 19
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL052021
1144 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

This product covers the Florida Keys

**ELSA MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Monroe Upper Keys
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys and
      Monroe Middle Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 320 miles south-southeast of Key West FL
    - 20.6N 79.2W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 15 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 1100 PM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located about 60
miles south of the southern coast of central Cuba. Elsa has
intensified slightly during the past six hours. On the forecast track,
the center of Elsa will move northwest just to the south of central
Cuba overnight, across western Cuba on Monday, then emerge into the
Straits of Florida Monday evening. Confidence in the track forecast
remains high, while the intensity and size of Elsa after it emerges
from Cuba remains uncertain. Conditions will deteriorate across the
Florida Keys Monday afternoon and Monday night, as Elsa moves north
northwest into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm.

The risk for multiple hazards remains essentially unchanged for the
Florida Keys, including tropical storm force winds, coastal flooding,
heavy rainfall, isolated tornadoes, and treacherous marine conditions.
These hazards will extend well to the east of the center of
circulation and beyond the edge of the track cone. Tropical storm
conditions are most likely to arrive late Monday afternoon and
continue through Tuesday morning, with conditions gradually improving
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

Frequent squalls with blinding downpours and strong winds of tropical
storm force will cause driving on the Overseas Highway and other roads
in Monroe County to be challenging during the impact of Elsa.

Coastal flooding 1 to 2 feet higher than our recent high tides, along
with overwash along south facing shorelines, will be possible. These
peak water levels can be considered a reasonable worst case scenario.

Heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
6 inches, may cause significant rainwater flooding, including areas
not impacted by coastal flooding. Heavy rainfall will be exacerbated
Tuesday morning during the times of high tide.

An isolated tornado or two will be possible across the Florida Keys
from Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Overnight camping at Bahia Honda, Curry Hammock and Long Key State
Parks is temporarily prohibited. Day use is currently planned to
continue, but park officials may temporarily close the parks on Monday
if necessary.

Decisions regarding closure of schools and county offices on Tuesday
will be made on Monday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across the Lower Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the Middle and Upper Keys.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water.
      Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers
      the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion.
    - Minor damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few
      small craft broken away from moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Monroe County Emergency Management advises residents and visitors who
are in campgrounds, recreational vehicles, travel trailers, live-
aboard vessels and mobile homes to either leave the Keys immediately
or relocate to a safe structure for the duration of the storm.

No mandatory evacuation directives have been announced.

Visitors in conventional lodging facilities who are planning to leave
Monday are urged to depart as early as possible. Visitors who stay
should remain indoors until the storm clears the region.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong
gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to
become unsafe.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the
storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer
shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com/782/Emergency-Management
- For Monroe County EM Hurricane Preparedness Information, see
monroecountyem.com/1214/Hurricane-Preparedness
- For Monroe County EM Evacuation Information, see
monroecountyem.com/897/Evacuation-information
- For Monroe County shelter information, see
monroecountyem.com/992/Shelters

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Jacobson
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