[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 041158
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

...ELSA VERY NEAR JAMAICA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVER EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 76.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, and Cienfuegos
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required this morning.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 76.2 West.  Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight or Monday.  On the
forecast track, Elsa will move away from the southern portion of
Haiti during the next couple of hours, and continue to move near
Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba today, and approach central
Cuba tonight.  By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central
and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits.  Elsa is then
forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida
on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some slight strengthening is possible today as Elsa
approaches the south-central coast of Cuba.  However, gradual
weakening is forecast to occur tonight and Monday when Elsa moves
across Cuba.  After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico some slight restrengthening is possible.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
southern portions of Haiti for a few more hours, and these
conditions are expected to spread across Jamaica later this
morning.  Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba
later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, in western
Cuba by early Monday, and the Florida Keys by late Monday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, rainfall of
4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches remains
possible today.  This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and
mudslides, some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and
Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday.  Amounts of 2 to 4
inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be
possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast
of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or
two.  Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida
early next week.  Please consult products from your local weather
office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
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