[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jul 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 18.1N 75.5W at 04/0900 UTC
or 70 nm E of Kingston Jamaica moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is from 15N to 21N between 73W and 82W. On the
forecast track, Elsa will move away from the southern portion of
Haiti during the next couple of hours, and move near Jamaica and
portions of eastern Cuba later this morning. By Monday, Elsa is
expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward
the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over
portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Some slight strengthening is possible today as Elsa approaches
the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is
forecast to occur tonight and Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba.
After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf
of Mexico some slight re-strengthening is possible. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 01N to 14N with axis near 28W, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 09N
between 25W and 39W.

A tropical wave extends from 0N to 10N with axis near 45W, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N
between 42W and 55W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 19N with axis near 84W,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers and tstms are in the Gulf
of Honduras.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N21W to 04N30W to 08N36W to 06N43W. Aside from
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
showers and tstms are occuring from 02N to 10N E of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle variable winds are across the entire basin with
seas in the 1 to 3 ft range. A stationary front extends from
southern Georgia all the way westward to central Texas. Scattered
showers and tstms are ahead of the front N of 25N E of 94W.

Tropical Storm Elsa near 18.1N 75.5W 1006 mb at 5 AM EDT moving
WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Elsa will
move to 19.5N 77.4W this afternoon, 21.5N 79.4W Mon morning,
inland to 23.0N 81.0W Mon afternoon, 24.6N 82.2W Tue morning,
25.9N 82.8W Tue afternoon, and 27.8N 82.9W Wed morning. Elsa will
move inland over near 33.2N 80.0W early Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Elsa near 18.1N 75.5W 1006 mb at 5 AM EDT moving
WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Elsa will
move to 19.5N 77.4W this afternoon, 21.5N 79.4W Mon morning,
inland to 23.0N 81.0W Mon afternoon, 24.6N 82.2W Tue morning,
25.9N 82.8W Tue afternoon, and 27.8N 82.9W Wed morning. Elsa will
move inland near 33.2N 80.0W early Thu. Otherwise, a tropical wave
in the western basin will move W of the region today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Atlantic high pressure will shift slightly eastward through Mon
in response to a cold front moving N of the forecast waters. Fresh
to strong southerly winds ahead of the front and N of 28N will
diminish on Mon. Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to move over
portions of central and western Cuba today into Mon and the
Straits of Florida by Mon afternoon.

$$
Ramos
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