[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KKEY 040913
HLSKEY
FLZ076>078-041630-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL052021
513 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

This product covers the Florida Keys

**TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
 FLORIDA KEYS**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys and
      Monroe Middle Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 600 miles southeast of Key West FL
    - 18.1N 75.5W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 500 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Elsa was located in the Caribbean Sea
between the western tip of Haiti and Jamaica, with no significant
change of intensity during the past six hours. On the forecast track,
the center of Elsa will move near Jamaica and eastern Cuba today, then
move across central and western Cuba tonight into Monday, emerging
into the Straits of Florida Monday afternoon. Confidence in the track
forecast continues to increase, while the intensity and structure of
Elsa after it emerges from Cuba remains highly uncertain. Conditions
will deteriorate across the Florida Keys Monday afternoon and Monday
night, as Elsa moves north-northwest into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico as a tropical storm.

The risk for multiple hazards remains essentially unchanged for the
Florida Keys, including tropical storm force winds, coastal flooding,
heavy rainfall, isolated tornadoes, and treacherous marine conditions.
Tropical storm conditions are most likely to arrive late Monday
afternoon and continue through Tuesday morning, with conditions
gradually improving Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

Coastal flooding 1 to 2 feet higher than our recent high tides, along
with overwash along south facing shorelines, will be possible. These
peak water levels can be considered a reasonable worst case scenario.

Heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
6 inches, may cause localized rainwater flooding, including some areas
not impacted by coastal flooding. Heavy rainfall will be exacerbated
Tuesday morning during the times of high tide.

Monroe County has declared a State of Local Emergency due to potential
effects from Tropical Storm Elsa.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
the Lower and Middle Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to
      porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. Mobile homes damaged,
      especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become
      dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or
      heavily wooded places.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water.
      Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers
      the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion.
    - Minor damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few
      small craft broken away from moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited
impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
While mandatory evacuations are not expected for this storm, voluntary
evacuations of all campgrounds, recreational vehicles, travel trailers,
and liveaboard vessels is scheduled to commence this morning at 800
AM. Visitors are urged to consider extending their stay through
Wednesday or to depart by or before 800 AM on Monday morning to avoid
traffic issues normally seen after busy holiday weekends.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com/782/Emergency-Management
- For Monroe County EM Hurricane Preparedness Information, see
monroecountyem.com/1214/Hurricane-Preparedness
- For Monroe County EM Evacuation Information, see
monroecountyem.com/897/Evacuation-information
- For Monroe County shelter information, see
monroecountyem.com/992/Shelters

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 12 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Jacobson
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