[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KKEY 032209
HLSKEY
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Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL052021
609 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021

This product covers the Florida Keys

**Tropical Storm Watch Now in Effect for the Lower and Middle Florida
 Keys**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Monroe Lower Keys
      and Monroe Middle Keys

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys and
      Monroe Middle Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 700 miles southeast of Key West FL
    - 17.5N 73.9W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 290 degrees at 28 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 500 PM EDT, reconnaissance aircraft data and satellite imagery
indicate Tropical Storm Elsa has changed very little in strength over
the past six hours. On the forecast track, the center of Tropical
Storm Elsa will move west-northwest tonight, passing between Jamaica
and Hispaniola, then continue northwest towards the south-central Cuban
coastline on Sunday. Elsa will emerge into the Straits of Florida
Monday morning. Confidence in the track forecast has increased, while
the strength of Elsa after it emerges from Cuba is uncertain.
Conditions will deteriorate across the Florida Keys Monday and Monday
night as Elsa moves north into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a
tropical storm.

The risk for multiple hazards remains essentially unchanged for the
Florida Keys, including tropical storm force winds, coastal flooding,
heavy rainfall, isolated tornadoes, and treacherous marine conditions.
Tropical storm conditions are most likely to arrive early Monday
afternoon, with conditions gradually improving Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night.

Coastal flooding 1 to 2 feet higher than our recent high tides, along
with overwash along south facing shorelines, will be possible. These
peak water levels can be considered a reasonable worst case scenario.

Heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
6 inches, may cause significant rainwater flooding, including areas
not impacted by coastal flooding. Heavy rainfall will be exacerbated
Tuesday morning during the times of high tide.

Monroe County has declared a State of Local Emergency due to potential
effects from Tropical Storm Elsa.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
the Lower and Middle Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to
      porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. Mobile homes damaged,
      especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become
      dangerous projectiles.
    - Large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in
      places where trees are shallow rooted. Fences and roadway signs
      blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or
      heavily wooded places.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water.
      Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers
      the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion.
    - Minor damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few
      small craft broken away from moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation
      at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some
      streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and
      retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and
      communications disruptions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
While mandatory evacuations are not expected for this storm, voluntary
evacuations of all campgrounds, recreational vehicles, travel trailers,
and liveaboard vessels is scheduled to commence Sunday at 800 AM.
Visitors are urged to consider extending their stay through Wednesday
or to depart by or before 800 AM on Monday to avoid traffic issues
normally seen after busy holiday weekends.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com/782/Emergency-Management
- For Monroe County EM Hurricane Preparedness Information, see
monroecountyem.com/1214/Hurricane-Preparedness
- For Monroe County EM Evacuation Information, see
monroecountyem.com/897/Evacuation-information
- For Monroe County shelter information, see
monroecountyem.com/992/Shelters

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

CLR
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