[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 031748
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA PASSING SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 73.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic has changed
the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta
Palenque to the border with Haiti, changed the Tropical Storm
Warning to a Tropical Storm Watch east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the
north coast of the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Elsa.  Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 73.0 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h).  A decrease
in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a
turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later
today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern
Cuba on Sunday.  By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central
and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is
forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of
Florida on Tuesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast through
tonight, but gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when
Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
mainly to the north of the center.  Port Au Prince, Haiti, recently
reported a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane
warning area in Haiti later today. Hurricane conditions are possible
in eastern Cuba on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring
over portions of the Dominican Republic, are expected on Jamaica
and over eastern Cuba on Sunday, and are possible over central Cuba
Sunday night or Monday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact
Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with
localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected
today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding
and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature.

Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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