[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 021223
TCDAT5

Hurricane Elsa Special Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa has become a
hurricane, and this special advisory is being issued to update the
first 36 h of the intensity and wind radii forecasts.  More
revisions of the intensity forecast are likely on the next regular
advisory.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
currently entering the hurricane, and a NOAA aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system this afternoon.

There are no changes to the forecast track at this time.  It should
be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200
miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.  Given the larger-than-normal
uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the
center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact
forecast points.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados and are expected
elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area in the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning
in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Tropical
storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible
over southern portions of Hispaniola on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain
bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern
Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides
are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next
week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and
updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the
Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week.
However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to
Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend.
Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to
the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1230Z 13.1N  60.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 13.8N  62.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 15.4N  67.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 17.1N  71.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 18.7N  75.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 20.2N  77.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 21.7N  79.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 25.2N  82.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 29.2N  82.6W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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