[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Dec 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A developing winter storm is forecast to track east-northeastward
across the US central Plains to Great Lakes region this weekend.
A strong cold front associated with this storm will enter the NW
Gulf of Mexico Sun morning, reaching the SW Gulf Sun afternoon.
Behind this front, near-gale to gale winds are expected to arrive
at the NW Gulf Sun morning, W central Gulf near noon and then Bay
of Campeche by late Sun afternoon. Seas will also rise and reach
11 to 14 ft across the NW Gulf by late Sun afternoon, then peak
at 15 to 18 ft and spread to the W central Gulf by Sun evening;
and eventually to the Bay of Campeche early Mon morning.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly over the African continent. An
ITCZ extends from SW of Liberia near 04N14W to 04N30W to N of
Brazil at EQ43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted up to 100 nm S and N of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on a
Gale Warning issued for the NW and SW Gulf.

A surface ridge stretches westward from S Florida across the
central Gulf to central Mexico. Tighter gradient between this
ridge and a low pressure over S Texas/NE Mexico is supporting
moderate to fresh southerly winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft across
the W and central Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail for the E
Gulf.

For the forecast, tighter gradient will sustain moderate to
locally fresh southerly flow across the central and W basin
through Sat, except winds will increase to between fresh and
strong tonight thru Sat evening as the pressure gradient
increases further ahead of a strong cold front forecast to come
off the coast of Texas early on Sun. Strong to near-gale force
northerly winds will follow this front across the basin, with gale
conditions affecting the NW and SW basin on Sun and Sun night.
The front is forecast to move E of the gulf Mon morning. Winds and
seas associated with the front will gradually subside through Mon
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tight gradient between a 1025 mb high N of Hispaniola and a low
near the Panama-Colombia border is maintaining a ENE to E trade-
wind pattern across the entire basin. Convergent trades are
triggering scattered showers across the central and E central
basin, including the islands of Dominica and St. Lucia. Fresh to
strong trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found over the S central
basin, N of Colombia. Moderate with locally fresh trades and seas
at 5 to 6 ft are present for the E and NW basin. Moderate to
fresh trades with seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail for the remainder of
the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure centered N of Hispaniola is
forecast to remain nearly-stationary through Sun, supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean, except for
locally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, central Caribbean
and portions of the SW basin. The tail of a cold front will enter
the far NW Caribbean Mon morning supporting moderate to locally
fresh NE winds and building seas in the Yucatan channel. The front
will stall from W Cuba to Belize by Mon night before dissipating
early Tue. Winds will diminish to moderate speeds over the NW and
E Caribbean on Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from SE of the Azores through
31N24W to 25N48W, then turns northward as a warm front to beyond
31N48W. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 100 nm NW,
and 60 nm SE of the cold front. Similar conditions are seen near
the warm front N of 25N between 45W and 49W. A surface trough
extends southwestward from W of Canary Islands at 27N26W to
16N41W. Scattered showers are noted up to 50 nm NW and SE of this
feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A 1025 mb high pressure located east of the Bahamas near 25N70W
is supporting light to gentle winds with seas at 3 to 6 ft from
22N to 29N between 57W and the Florida-Georgia coast. N of 29N,
moderate to fresh westerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present
between 50W and Georgia coast, and also W of Canary Islands
between 18W and 30W. Larger NW swell is generating seas at 10 to
15 ft N of 23N between 24W and 53W, despite the presence of light
to gentle winds. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas of 6
to 8 ft are found from the Equator to 17N between 30W and the
Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle NE to SE trades and seas at 6 to
8 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure centered E of the
Bahamas will remain nearly-stationary through Sun. The high
pressure will weaken and move E on Sun evening ahead of a strong
cold front moving off the NE Florida coast Sun night. Fresh to
strong southerly winds are forecast to the N of the Bahamas ahead
of the front Sat night, increasing to near-gale force speeds Sun,
and to gale force Sun night N of 30N. Gale conditions will diminish
Mon morning. Building seas associated with the front will subside
to the E of the Bahamas by midweek.

$$

Chan
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