[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Dec 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front reaching from the Azores to northeast of the Leeward
Islands near 20N60W will stall and dissipate west of 35W through
tonight. A second, reinforcing cold front moving across the north
central Atlantic will move across the waters north of 25N and east
of 50W through Thu night, accompanied by winds to minimal gale
force near 31N35W Thu afternoon. Large seas to 20 ft will also
accompany the front in NW swell, with reinforcing swell to 8 ft
reaching as far south as 22N west of 55W through Thu night. Winds
will diminish through Fri as the front stalls along 27N. Seas to
12 ft will linger through Fri north of 22N between 35W and 55W.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure centered east of the Bahamas will build through Fri,
support fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
Sea through Sun, with winds pulsing to minimal gale force off
Colombia Thu night, with seas to 11 ft.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Sierra-Leone near
09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to the coast of
NE Brazil near 01N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 03N to 05N between 22W and 26W, and 04N to 06N between 43W
and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic through the
northern Gulf of Mexico. This is support moderate to fresh SE to S
winds with 5 to 7 ft seas across most of the Gulf, except for 3 to
5 ft seas in the far eastern part of the basin. No fog, showers or
thunderstorms are noted at this time.

For the forecast, the ridge will shift eastward, allowing for
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the
entire basin Thu as a weak frontal boundary stalls and dissipates
along the Texas coast. Looking ahead, southeast to south winds are
expected to increase over the western Gulf by late Fri as low
pressure moves into the Central Plains. A strong cold front
associated with this low pressure may reach the Texas coast late
Sat night or early Sun before it quickly moves to the eastern Gulf
late Sun. Gale-force winds are possible behind the front over the
western Gulf from early Sun through Mon night, with strong to
near gale-force winds elsewhere across the area in the wake of the
front. Seas are expected to quickly build behind the front as
well.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

1021 mb high pressure centered north of the area north of Puerto
Rico is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, with 5 to 7 ft seas, possibly
reaching 8 ft off Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate E to SE winds and
3 to 5 ft are observed. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is evident at this time.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of Puerto Rico will
strengthen through Thu and continue to support fresh to strong
trade winds across mainly the central Caribbean through Sat, with
minimal gale force winds off Colombia Thu night. The high
pressure will weaken over the weekend allowing for the fresh to
strong trades to diminish in coverage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details about the
gale warning in effect for the Atlantic.

1021 mb high pressure is building near 26N67W, following a cold
front currently reaching from the Azores to near the Leeward
Islands. Light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are prevalent
west of 65W, except for moderate SW winds off northeast Florida
and moderate to fresh E winds off Hispaniola. Fresh to strong W
winds and 7 to 11 ft seas are noted north of 28N between 50W and
65W south of a low pressure area northeast of Bermuda. Elsewhere
moderate to fresh NW winds and 10 to 14 ft seas in NW swell are
noted north of 20N west of the front to 65W. South of 20N moderate
to fresh trades and 5 to 8 ft seas in E swell are observed.
Farther east, the subtropical ridge extends from the coast of
Morocco to 20N35W. Fresh to strong SW winds and 12 to 16 ft are
active within 300 nm east of the front, north of of the ridge.
Gentle to moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft are evident elsewhere
south of the ridge and east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the high pressure near 26N67W will
strengthen through Sat. The high pressure will weaken and move
east Sun ahead of a strong cold front moving off the northeast
Florida coast late Sun night.


$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net