[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280450
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Dec 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A deepening low pressure system located over the central
Atlantic is producing hurricane force winds N of the forecast
area, with gale force winds that extend into the discussion area
S of 31N. A cold front associated with the deepening low enters
the Atlantic forecast region near 31N42W and extends westward to
near 25N70W. SW winds to gale force are occurring E of the front
to 40W and N of 28N, while gales behind the front are N of 30N
and extend W to 53W. The front will move southwest through Wed,
with gale force winds lifting NE of the area midday Tue. A
surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front from 31N40W to
25N50W to 18N61W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within
120 nm ahead of the trough axis N of 25N. Satellite derived
winds depict fresh to strong winds covering the waters N of 26N
between 38W and 58W. Large swell in excess of 8 ft will reach as
far south as 22N through mid week, with seas as high as 20 ft
along 30N.Both winds and seas should begin to subside Tue
morning as the low pressure lifts out to the northeast. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and Sierra-
Leone near 09N14W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to
the coast of NE Brazil near 02N40W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 12N, east of 10W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The extension of a ridge that is centered east of West Palm
Beach, Florida near 27N70W reaches westward across the Gulf
waters. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and seas of 1-3 ft
prevails over the eastern half of the Gulf while moderate to
fresh southerly winds with seas of 3-6 ft are noted over the
western half of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the eastern Gulf will
support moderate to fresh winds across the central and western
Gulf through Wed night. The high pressure will shift eastward,
allowing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
across the entire basin on Thu as a weak frontal boundary stalls
and dissipates along the Texas coast. Looking ahead, southeast
to south winds are expected to increase over the western Gulf by
late Fri as low pressure moves into the Central Plains. A strong
cold front associated with this low pressure may reach the Texas
coast late Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak ridging over the Gulf from a high pressure located east of
the Florida peninsula dominates the pattern across the Caribbean
Sea. Recent scatterometer and altimeter passes confirmed the
presence of fresh to strong northeast winds and seas of 7 to 9
ft off the coast of Colombia with moderate to locally fresh
trades and 5-7 ft prevalent across the remainder of the south-
central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Elsewhere,
seas of 3-5 ft are noted, with the exception of the far eastern
part of the basin where gentle to moderate trades are observed.

For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
will maintain moderate to fresh winds across the Caribbean into
Tue, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia mainly at night. The
high pressure will move eastward into the western Atlantic and
strengthen beginning Wed supporting fresh to strong winds over
parts of the central Caribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast region near 31N42W and
extends westward to near 25N70W. The front will move southeast
through Wed. A surface trough analyzed ahead of the front  from
31N40W to 25N50W to 18N61W. A Gale Warning is in effect over the
central Atlantic in association with these features. Please read
the Special Features section for more details.

High pressure east of the Florida peninsula dominates the
western Atlantic, resulting in mainly gentle anticyclonic winds
off the Florida Peninsula to 65W and seas of 2 to 4 ft in this
area. Further east, high pressure of 1026 mb situated near the
coast of Morocco dominates the eastern Atlantic, producing light
to gentle winds along the ridge axis that extends to near
19N52W. Moderate trade winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail
across the tropical Atlantic S of 17N and E of 60W.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front along 25N east of 70W
will move southeast of the region through Wed. High pressure
currentlyover the eastern Gulf will shift eastward following the
front, and strengthen northeast of the Bahamas Tue through Sat.

$$
Nepaul
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