[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272303
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Dec 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2220 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A deepening low pressure system located over the central Atlantic
is forecast to produce hurricane force winds N of the forecast
area, and is presently producing an elongated area of gale force
winds to now extend S of 31N and into the discussion area. The
associated cold front enters the Atlantic forecast region near
31N47W and extends westward to near 27.5N73W. SW winds to gale
force are occurring E of the front to 40W and N of 29.5N, while
gales behind the front are N of 30N and extend W to 58W. The
front will move SE through Wed, with gale force winds lifting NE
of the area midday Tue. A surface trough is ahead of the front
and stretches from 31N44W to 26N52W to 21N59W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are within 120 nm ahead of the trough axis N of
27N. Late morning scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong
winds covering the waters N of 26N between 38W and 58W. Large
swell in excess of 8 ft will reach as far south as 22N through mid
week, with seas as high as 20 ft along 31N today through tonight.
Both winds and seas should begin to subside Tue morning as the
low pressure lifts out to the northeast. Please read the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11.5W
to 05N17.5W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17.5W to 04N27W to 02.5N45W
to the coast of NE Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 09W and 31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1019 mb is located over Florida just SE of Tampa
Bay and extends a ridge W across the Gulf waters producing mainly
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and seas of 1-3 ft over the
eastern half of the Gulf, and moderate to fresh southerly winds
with seas in the 3-6 ft range over the western half of the Gulf.
Patches of low level clouds are noted but mainly over the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure will support moderate to fresh
winds across the central and western Gulf through mid week. This
system will shift eastward, allowing gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas across the entire basin on Thu as a weak
frontal boundary stalls and dissipates along the Texas coast.
Looking ahead, southeast to south winds may increase over the
western Gulf by late Fri as low pressure moves into the Central
Plains.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak high pressure located over Florida dominates the pattern
over the Caribbean Sea. A late morning scatterometer pass
confirmed the presence of fresh to strong northeast winds off the
coast of Colombia, and just S of Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic.
Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are 7-9
ft off the coast of Colombia and 5-7 ft across the remainder of
the south-central Caribbean. Seas of 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere,
except in the far eastern part of the basin. A trough is over the
northern Leeward Islands and extends from 20N60W to 16N63W.
Patches of low level clouds with showers are along the trough
axis. Similar cloudiness, carried by the trade wind flow, is
observed over parts of Central America.

For the forecast, high pressure over Florida will maintain moderate
to fresh winds across the Caribbean into Tue, with strong winds
pulsing off Colombia mainly at night. The high pressure will move
eastward into the western Atlantic and strengthen by mid to late
week, supporting fresh to strong winds over parts of the central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras by mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast region near 31N47W and
extends westward to near 27.5N73W. The front will move SE through
Wed. A surface trough is ahead of the front and stretches from
31N44W to 26N52W to 21N59W. A Gale Warning is in effect over the
central Atlantic in association with these features. Please read
the Special Features section for more details.

High pressure over central Florida dominates the western Atlantic.
Mainly gentle anticyclonic winds are observed off the Florida
Peninsula to about 77W per satellite derived wind data with gentle
to moderate NE-E winds across the Straits of Florida. Seas are 1
to 3 ft in this area.

High pressure of 1023 mb situated near the coast of Morocco
dominates the eastern Atlantic, producing light to gentle winds
along the ridge axis that extends to near 21N55W. Moderate to
locally fresh tradewinds prevail across the tropical Atlantic S of
17N and E of 60W.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front along 27.5N east of 73W
will move southeast of the region through Wed. High pressure
currently over Florida will shift eastward following the front,
and strengthen northeast of the Bahamas Tue through Fri.

$$
Stripling
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