[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262307
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Dec 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...
A 992 mb low pressure currently near 39N60W will move
southeastward while gradually intensifying over the next few days.
In the process, it will bring a strong cold front south of 30N
and east of 70W tonight. The front will reach from 31N35W to near
the Leeward Islands by late Tue. Winds reaching gale force will
follow the front over the waters north of 29N between 35W and 55W
from Mon morning to Tue morning. In addition, very rough to high
seas will accompany the front mainly east of Bermuda, with seas
expected to peak between 20 and 22 ft Mon night and early Tue.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Liberia
near 06N10W to 05N12W. The ITCZ extends continues from 05N12W
through 04N26W to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection with
embedded thunderstorms is evident along the western half of the
ITCZ from the equator to 06N between 26W and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from 1020 mb high pressure
located in the eastern Gulf across the basin. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
over the northwestern Gulf. Light to gentle breezes and slight
seas dominate the eastern Gulf. No significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is evident.

For the forecast, the ridge extending from the subtropical Atlantic
westward into the Gulf of Mexico will shift east through Mon night.
Return flow will then prevail through Fri night. This pattern
will support moderate to fresh south to southeast winds across the
basin through Wed evening with locally strong winds developing
west of 90W Tue and Tue night. Gentle to moderate return flow is
forecast basin-wide Thu and Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area dominates the pattern over the
Caribbean Sea generating a moderate to fresh trades mostly across
the eastern and central basin. An earlier scatterometer pass
revealed fresh northeast winds through the Windward Passage and a
small area of near gale force winds off the coast of Colombia.
Seas in the basin are generally 3 to 5 ft with 6 to 7 ft possible
near the coast of Colombia and Panama in the southern Caribbean.
A few showers are possible near the Gulf of Honduras along a
trough stretching from 21N86W to 16N82W. Showers are also noted in
the Leeward Islands near a trough E of the islands.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will remain
nearly stationary the next couple of days and winds in the western
half of the basin will increase to moderate to fresh through Tue.
Strong winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras and the central
Caribbean Tue night through Fri night as the high pressure north
of the area strengthen. Strong NE winds are forecast at night in
the Windward passage through the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning issued
for the central Atlantic.

High pressure near central Florida dominates the western
Atlantic. Winds are generally increasing with latitude from a
gentle to moderate northeasterly breeze and 3-5 ft seas near the
Greater Antilles to a fresh westerly breeze with 8-10 ft seas
north of 29N. Seas range 8-10 ft N of 28N and E of 70W, otherwise
seas range 3 to 6 ft across the western Atlantic. East of 65W, a
strong westerly breeze and greater fetch area are causing higher
seas to propagate farther south with altimeter data confirming
seas are greater than 10 ft north of 30N while 8 ft seas reach as
far south as 25N in the central Atlantic.

In the eastern Atlantic, a dying cold front extends from 31N28W
to 28N35W where a dying stationary boundary continues to 26N46W. A
fresh breeze is noted along the front. Moderate trade winds are
noted south of 20N. Gentle winds dominate the remainder of the
basin from 20N to 27N with moderate northerly swell.

For the forecast, high pressure over the Bahamas will shift
slightly west over Florida ahead of a cold front moving into the
waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight. The front
will continue to move southeast of the region through Wed. The
high pressure will shift eastward following the front, and
strengthen northeast of the Bahamas Tue through Fri.

$$
AReinhart
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