[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250910
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Dec 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N08W
to 04N10W. The ITCZ continues from 04N10W to 03N25W to the coast
of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-
05N between 22W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across the
northern Gulf. This pattern is supporting a fresh southerly
breezes over the northwest Gulf where seas are likely 5 to 7 ft.
Gentle to moderate breezes with 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the
central basin with a light breeze and 1 to 2 ft seas in the
northeast Gulf. No shower or thunderstorm activity is currently
observed in the basin.

For the forecast, a ridge extending from high pressure over the
eastern Gulf to the Texas coast will lift northward through early
next week, supporting moderate to fresh southeast winds over the
western Gulf. The warm and moist southerly flow over the western
Gulf may support areas of fog by mid week over the northwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

1023 mb high pressure is centered north of the area between
Bermuda and northeast Florida. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass shows this pattern is supporting areas of fresh NE winds in
the lee of Cuba, south of Jamaica and off the coast of Colombia
between Barranquilla and Cartagena. Although not captured in this
scatterometer pass, fresh to strong winds are likely across the
Windward Passage as well. Gentle to moderate winds are evident
elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the persistent plume of fresh to
strong winds reaching from the Windward Passage to the waters
east and southeast of Jamaica. 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere.
No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse mainly during
overnight hours off Colombia starting tonight. Elsewhere, winds
and seas will diminish through Sun across the basin as high
pressure north of the area shifts eastward. This pattern will
return late Mon as high pressure builds again north of the area
following a cold front moving across the western Atlantic,
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the basin
through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front reaches from 31N47W to 23N65W, then is stationary to
northern Haiti. 1023 mb high pressure following the front is
centered between Bermuda and northeast Florida near 31N71W. A
scatterometer satellite pass showed a large area of fresh NE winds
north of Puerto Rico and east of the Turks and Caicos Islands,
between the high pressure and the front, from 22N to 25N east of
the front to 70W. Seas are likely 6 to 8 ft in this area. Gentle
to moderate winds with 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere west of 55W.
Fresh to strong SE winds are evident within 90 nm east of the
front north of 29N, with seas to 8 ft as noted in a recent
altimeter satellite pass. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas are evident north of 20N between 35W and 55W, and moderate
to fresh trade winds are noted south of 20N between 35W and 55W,
with 7 to 9 ft seas in E swell. E of 35W, 1021 mb high pressure
is centered east of the Canary Islands near 28N31W, north of a
dissipating stationary front reaching from central Portugal to the
Canary Islands to 22N35W. This is supporting light to gentle
breezes north of 20N and moderate NE trade winds south of 20N,
with 7 to 10 ft seas in N swell across the region east of 35W.

For the forecast, the northern portion of the frontal boundary
will continue eastward through tonight, stall from 31N35W to
22N65W Sun and dissipate Mon. High pressure building behind the
front off the Carolinas will move to the south of Bermuda today,
ahead of another front that will move across the waters between
Bermuda and northeast Florida Sun. Gale conditions are possible
late Mon north of 29N between 45W and 55W as the second front
moves through the region. Large N swell with building seas will
follow the front east of 70W Sun through mid week.

$$
Christensen
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