[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241701
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Dec 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland over the Guinean Forests of West
Africa. The ITCZ begins near the boarder of Liberia and the Ivory
Coast near 05N08W and continues across the Atlantic through
06N20W, 02N40W and finally reaches 03N51W along the coast of
Brazil. Scattered moderate convection and a few thunderstorms are
noted along the eastern portion of the ITCZ from 04N to 07N and
between 13W and 17W. Scattered moderate convection with several
embedded thunderstorms is also noted near the western portion of
the ITCZ from the equator to 06N and between 35W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from high pressure centered over the
southeastern US to the central Gulf of Mexico. This pattern is
supporting a fresh southerly breeze in the northwest Gulf with
buoy data indicating 5 to 7 ft seas. A gentle to moderate breeze
with 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the central basin with a light
breeze and 1 to 2 ft seas in the northeast Gulf. No shower or
thunderstorm activity is currently observed in the basin.

For the forecast, a ridge extending from high pressure over the
eastern Gulf to the Texas coast will lift northward through early
next week, supporting moderate to fresh southeast winds over the
western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong
northerly winds persist in the Windward Passage extending south
to Jamaica. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this area. Moderate to locally
fresh NE winds dominate the northwestern and central Caribbean
with 4 to 6 ft seas. In the eastern Caribbean scatterometer data
is indicating a moderate easterly breeze. Altimeter and buoy data
suggests seas have abated to 3 to 4 ft in the area. A surface
trough extends across the Mona Passage, generating scattered weak
convection in the area with otherwise gentle winds. A few showers
may also be possible in scattered weak convection near the Gulf of
Honduras and the Mosquito Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong north winds over the Windward
Passage following a front stalled over Haiti will diminish by
early Sat as the front dissipates. High pressure building north of
the area behind the front will support moderate to fresh winds
over much of the central and southwest Caribbean through early
next week, including overnight winds pulsing to strong off
Colombia starting Sat night. For the tropical Atlantic waters east
of the Lesser Antilles, E swell with wave heights to 9 ft will
subside through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to northern Hispaniola.
Scattered moderate convection with a few thunderstorms are noted
within 180 nm of this boundary north of 25N. Recent scatterometer
data in this area confirms near gale force northerly winds behind
the front with 6 to 8 ft seas likely. South of 25N, buoys are
reporting moderate to fresh NE flow and 4 to 6 ft seas. Ahead of
the front, winds are generally S-SW increasing from gentle near
the Greater Antilles to strong north of 28N.

Farther east, a 1021 mb high pressure is centered southwest of the
Azores Islands near 28N38W, north of a stationary front meandering
from the Canary Islands to 24N49W. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted north of 20N with 10 to 12 ft northerly swell. South of 20N,
moderate to fresh trade winds prevail with 8 to 10 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, The cold front will stall north of
the Leeward Islands through Sat evening, then dissipate Sun. High
pressure building behind the front off the Carolinas will move to
the south of Bermuda through early Sat, ahead of another front
that will move across the waters between Bermuda and northeast
Florida Sun. Looking ahead, the front will move southeast of the
region early next week as high pressure builds northeast of the
northern Bahamas behind the front. Large N swell, with building
seas will follow the front east of 70W Sun through Tue.

$$
FLYNN
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