[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Dec 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 05N19W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, to 02N30W, 01N40W, 02N43W, and
01N47W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 07N southward between 38W and 51W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 210 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ between 10W and 21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, to the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf
of Mexico.

Moderate winds or slower are in the Gulf of Mexico. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet.

For the forecast, a ridge extending from high pressure over the
eastern Gulf to the Texas coast will lift north through early
next week, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the
western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through 22N70W, across the western sections
of Haiti, to 17N75W in the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is
along 71W/72W from 13N to SW sections of the Dominican Republic.
Precipitation: rainshowers are from 14N northward between Puerto
Rico and Jamaica.

Strong winds are blowing through the Windward Passage, and
within 180 nm to the east of Nicaragua.  Moderate to fresh winds
are elsewhere from 80W westward. The sea heights range from 3
feet to 6 feet from Cuba and Jamaica westward. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will persist over the
Windward Passage through Fri night following a cold front that
move through the area earlier. The front will stall and
dissipate south of Hispaniola through Fri. High pressure
building north of the area behind the front will support
moderate to fresh winds over much of the central and southwest
Caribbean through early next week, including overnight winds
pulsing to strong off Colombia starting Sat night. For tropical
Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles, swell with wave
heights to 9 ft will subside through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N61W, to 25N67W, 22N70W, across
the western sections of Haiti, to 17N75W in the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 180 nm on either side of the cold front. Rainshowers are
from 14N to 20N between Puerto Rico and Jamaica. Fresh to strong
winds are within 150 nm to the southeast of the cold front
between 60W and 66W, and to the northwest of the cold front from
67W eastward, and from 24N to 30N between 70W and the Bahamas.

A stationary front passes through 31N16W to 24N29W to 24N35W and
23N48W. The sea heights are ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet to
the north of the front between 30W and 40W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible along and to the north of the
stationary front.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the north of the stationary
front. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 29N37W.

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet, generally, from
23N southward between 20W and 60W. The  sea heights range from
15 feet to 20 feet within 360 nm to the northwest of the Canary
Islands, close to the Azores. The sea heights range from 5 feet
to 7 feet, elsewhere between 55W and 70W. The sea heights range
from 2 feet to 4 feet from 70W westward. Near gale-force winds
are from 06N to 09N between 39W and 44W. Strong winds cover the
area from 03N to 16N between 35W and 57W, and from 12N to 20N
between 55W and 63W. Fresh winds cover much of the rest of the
rest of the Atlantic Ocean from the ITCZ to 20N. Moderate to
fresh winds cover the area from 20N northward from 55W westward.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from 27N68W to northern
Haiti will stall through Fri night then dissipate through late
Sat. High pressure will build behind the front between Bermuda
and northeast Florida. The high pressure will dissipate through
late Sat ahead of another cold front moving into the waters
between Bermuda and northeast Florida, followed by fresh to
strong W winds north of 29N and east of 70W. Looking ahead, the
front will move across the region through early next week,
followed by seas 8 ft or greater east of 70W Sun through Tue.

$$
mt/ec
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