[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Dec 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian at 05N, to
06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W, to 05N24W, 02N33W, and
01N46W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through Louisiana, to the Yucatan
Peninsula, to the western half of Honduras. Surface anticyclonic
wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate winds or slower are in the Gulf of Mexico. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days. By Thu night and continuing through the weekend, fresh
southerly return flow will establish over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Bahamas near 23N74W, to SE Cuba,
to Jamaica, to 17N80W in the Caribbean Sea, to northern
Nicaragua near 14N85W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 270 nm to the southeast of the cold
front from 15N southward, and within 500 nm to the
east/southeast of the cold front from 15N northward.

A surface ridge passes through the Yucatan Peninsula to the
western half of Honduras.

Fresh to strong winds are between 60W and 65W. Moderate to fresh
winds are elsewhere between 60W and 70W. Moderate to fresh winds
are between the cold front and 82W. Moderate winds are within
240 nm to the north of the northern sections of Colombia, and
within 120 nm of the rest of the coast of Colombia. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet.

A cold front extending from the Windward Passage to southern
Nicaragua will move east, then stall from Haiti to offshore
Costa Rica Fri while dissipating. Fresh to locally strong winds
are expected behind the front offshore Nicaragua through Thu
night. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades are expected in the
eastern and central Caribbean. For tropical Atlantic waters E of
the Lesser Antilles, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh
Thu, but seas of 8-9 ft in E swell will continue to propagate
across this area into Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N63W, to the Bahamas near 23N74W,
to SE Cuba, to Jamaica, to 17N80W in the Caribbean Sea, to
northern Nicaragua near 14N85W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is within 500 nm to the SE of the front from
15N in the Caribbean Sea northward through the Atlantic Ocean,
and within 120 nm to the NW of the cold front in the Atlantic
Ocean. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from the
cold front northward.

A second cold front passes through 31N19W to 26N30W to 24N40W
and 27N47W. The front is a warm front from 27N47W, northwestward
beyond 31N51W. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 8 feet
within 210 nm to the south of the warm front between 65W and
70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N
northward from 60W eastward.

A surface ridge is to the north of the 31N19W 27N47W frontal
boundary. A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 33N43W.

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet, generally, from
53W eastward. Some areas have intermittent ranges from 5 feet to
7 feet, mostly within 400 nm to the south of the frontal
boundary between 33W and 50W, and within 600 nm to the west of
Africa from 13N southward. The comparatively highest sea heights
are ranging from 11 feet to 13 feet from the cold front
northward between 30W and 40W. The sea heights range from 6 feet
to 7 feet, from 20N northward between 60W and the cold front
that passes through the Bahamas. Strong winds cover the area
from 04N to 18N between 30W and 55W, and from 12N to 20N between
55W and 63W. Fresh winds cover much of the rest of the rest of
the Atlantic Ocean from the ITCZ to 20N. Moderate to fresh winds
cover the area from 20N northward from 55W westward.

A cold front extending from Bermuda to the Windward Passage will
reach from near 31N60W to Haiti by Friday, then gradually move
east of the area this weekend. Strong winds are possible N of
28N and E of 75W, behind the front, through Thu night. High
pressure will follow the front. Low pressure N of the area may
lead to another around of strong winds this weekend, N of 28N.

$$
mt/sk
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