[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Dec 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

A cold front passes through 31N75W to 24N81W. Gale-force
westerly winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10
feet, cover the area that is from 27N to 31N between 73W and
80W, to the east of Florida. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the east of the
cold front, from Hispaniola northward. Please, refer to the
latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian at 04N, to
04N08W. The ITCZ continues from 04N08W, to 07N26W, 02N40W, and
04N46W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing through the coastal waters of Florida in
the Atlantic Ocean, through the Straits of Florida, beyond Cuba
between 81W and 82W, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
All the precipitation that is associated with the cold front is
to the east of the front.

Surface high pressure extends from the middle Texas Gulf coast,
into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet from 27N southward
from 87W eastward. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet
in the SW corner of the area. The sea heights range from 3 feet
to 5 feet, in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to
strong winds cover the area that is from 90W eastward.

With low pressure and a cold front now well E of the basin,
fresh to strong winds will diminish overnight, and seas will
fall below 8 ft. High pressure will move E across the northern
waters through the week, leading to fairly tranquil conditions.
By Thu night and Fri, fresh southerly return flow will be
established in the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, through Cuba
along 81W/82W, to the coastal plains of Honduras along 86W/87W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 120 nm on either side of the cold front.

Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 300 nm to the north
of the monsoon trough from 70W westward, which extends westward
from northern Colombia beyond Panama and southern Costa Rica.

Rainshowers are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, in areas
of broken to overcast low level clouds, that are moving with the
trade wind flow.

The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 80W eastward.
The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere. Moderate
to fresh winds cover the area from Jamaica eastward, and in the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea around the cold front.

A cold front extends from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras.
This front will move east, then stall by late Thu from the
Windward Passage to offshore Nicaragua. Fresh N winds are
expected behind the front into Wed night. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate trades prevail in the eastern and central Caribbean,
with lighter winds to the west. For tropical Atlantic waters E
of the Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong trades and seas of 8 to
9 ft will prevail into Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for information about
the gale-force wind conditions with the 1001 mb offshore Georgia
low pressure center and the cold front.

A cold front passes through 31N34W to 29N40W 28N45W 29N55W. The
front becomes warm from 29N55W, beyond 31N65W. The sea heights
are ranging from 7 feet to 8 feet within 210 nm to the south of
the warm front between 65W and 70W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 60 nm on either side of the frontal boundary,
and from 20N to 27N between 62W and 70W.

A surface ridge extends from the Canary Islands, to a 1020 mb
high pressure center that is near 26N30W, to a second 1020 mb
high pressure center that is near 26N53W, and to 26N65W.

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet, generally, between
20W and 50W. Some areas have intermittent ranges from 5 feet to
7 feet. The comparatively highest sea heights are ranging from
11 feet to 13 feet just to the northwest of the Canary Islands.
Strong winds cover the area from 05N to 20N between 38W and 60W.
Fresh winds are from 18N southward from 38W eastward. Moderate
to fresh winds cover the area from Jamaica eastward, and in the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea around the cold front.

A 1001 mb low centered offshore Georgia will continue to
accelerate NE tonight, away from the area. Gales will prevail,
in association with this low N of 27N and W of 72W, through Wed
morning. Winds will diminish to strong by later Wed, but fresh
to strong winds will continue through Wed night as a cold front
moves E across the waters. High pressure will build in starting
Thu, leading to tranquil conditions. Low pressure north of the
area will lead to strong W winds N of 28N this weekend.

$$
mt/sk
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