[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Dec 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Gale Warning is in effect offshore the Texas coast this morning,
where winds behind a cold front will frequently gust to gale
force. Conditions will improve somewhat later today, although
strong winds will prevail into tonight. Please, refer to the
following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to
05N25W to 03N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
120 nm off the coast of Liberia, within 180 nm N of the ITCZ
between 17W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico,
Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing within about 120
nm SE of the cold front. Behind the front, strong N winds are
occurring with frequent gusts to gale-force. Please see Special
Features section above for details. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are
occurring behind the front, and these seas will increase to 12 to
14 ft today.

Ahead of the front, mainly gentle winds are occurring with seas of
3 to 5 ft. Scattered moderate convection has developed over the NE
Gulf in association with deep moisture and divergence well ahead
of the cold front.

The cold front will move slowly south today, with strong north
wind behind it. Low pressure will form along this front in the
central Gulf Mon, then move NE into the SE U.S. Tue. This will
accelerate the front eastward through the Gulf by Tue night. This
low will likely bring strong winds to portions of the north-
central and NE Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will subside Wed
through Thu in the wake

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered southeast of
Bermuda and lower pressure over Colombia continues to support
fresh to strong winds over much of the central Caribbean, with
highest winds being observed just S of Hispaniola and just N of
Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the eastern
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds over the western parts of
the basin. Seas in the central basin where winds are highest range
from 8 to 10 ft, with 5 to 7 ft seas in the east and 3 to 5 ft
seas in the west.

With the strong trades and relatively dry air in place over the
Caribbean, the only significant convection is along and S of 9N
in the far SW basin, in association with the eastward extension of
the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

High pressure building south through the Atlantic will support
fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean through tonight.
The high will then push east Mon, allowing winds to diminish.
Large N to NE swell will continue in the tropical N Atlantic as
well as Mona and Anegada Passages through Mon night. Looking
ahead, a cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel late Tue
and may reach Honduras and Nicaragua by Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure near 30N62W of 1025 mb dominates much of the basin
this morning. In the far eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends
from 32N18W to 29N25W to 32N32W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring within about 90 nm of this front. To the north of this
front, near gale conditions are occurring between and to the west
of the Canary Islands and the Azores. Along and ahead of the
front, fresh to strong mainly W winds are ongoing, mainly N of
27N.

Where the high pressure is most dominate, winds are mainly gentle
to moderate. However, S of 23N, moderate to fresh trades dominate,
with an area of strong NE winds S of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Also, to the W of 70W, moderate to fresh S winds are increasing in
advance of a cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast
tonight. Finally, fresh to locally strong winds are occurring in
waters near the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles, highest in
the Windward Passage.

N of 25N and E of 50W, long period northerly swell is responsible
for seas of 10 to 14 ft. Areas S of 25N and E of the Lesser
Antilles are having seas of 8 to 11 ft in decaying N swell. Across
the rest of the basin, seas average 5 to 7 ft.

As high pressure slides E today, winds will gradually relax over
much of the basin. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast
tonight, then move east, bringing strong winds on both sides of
the front mainly N of 29N. Low pressure will move NE off the SE
U.S. coast Tue, bringing another potential for strong to near gale
winds on Wed and Thu. Large N swell impacting the Atlantic zone
from 19N- 22N between 55W-65W will diminish into tonight.

$$
KONARIK
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