[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Dec 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-force winds are forecast by the METEO-FRANCE, for the area
AGADIR. The gale-force winds will last from 03z today, until 18z
later in the day today. Please, refer to the website:
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1915.17
19153323576.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian at 06N to
05N11W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 05N29W. A
surface trough extends from 07N35W to 03N39W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ
between 27W and 29W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in
association with the surface trough, S of 09N between 35N and 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered over the SE U.S. is dominating the eastern
Gulf, with scattered moderate convection moving northward along
its periphery along 87W from 23N to 28N. Generally moderate SE to
S wind prevail over the basin, with seas of 2 to 5 ft. Patchy fog
is noted on satellite imagery and surface observations within
about 60 nm of shore from the Upper Texas coast to about Mobile
Bay.

A cold front will move off the Texas coast late this
evening, bringing strong to possibly near gale-force winds to the
NW Gulf and down the coast of Mexico Sun into Mon. The front
will move slowly until low pressure forms along in the in the
central Gulf late Mon, then moves NE into the SE U.S. Tue,
dragging the cold front across the Gulf as it does. Winds and seas
will subside Tue night into Wed in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak upper level trough from the Yucatan Channel to Nicaragua is
inducing scattered moderate convection. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted S of 10N in association with the eastward
extension of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Otherwise, fairly
dry air and stable conditions is keeping the Caribbean rain-free.

Strong to near gale-force winds dominate the central basin,
highest offshore Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are occurring in
the eastern basin with moderate to fresh winds in the western
Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the central, eastern, and
southwest Caribbean, with 3 to 6 ft seas in the NW.

High pressure building south through the Atlantic will support
fresh to strong trades over the central and eastern Caribbean and
tropical N Atlantic this weekend. The high will move east for the
start of next week, leading to weaker trades. Large N to NE swell
will continue in the tropical N Atlantic as well as Mona and
Anegada Passages through Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front may move
into the Yucatan Channel Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front stretches from 31N23W to 23N35W to 19N44W. A
shear line then continues west to 19N57W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 120 nm E of the cold front, to the N of
27N. Low pressure to near 35N24W, on the northern edge of the cold
front, is producing gale conditions to the east, please see
Special Features section above for details. To the W of this low,
strong W winds are occurring N of 28N and E of 50W.

A 1026 mb surface ridge is centered just S of Bermuda. This is
leading to gentle to moderate winds N of 26N, with fresh to strong
trades to the S. The highest winds are just N of the cold front
and shear line between 35W and 50W as well as just N of the
Greater Antilles.

Seas of 12 to 15 ft are noted in N swell N of 26N and E of 50W,
with most of the rest of the Atlantic, N of 10N and E of 55W,
having seas of 8 to 11 ft. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are also being
observed S of 24N, to the W of 55W, including the Lesser Antilles,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos, and the SE Bahamas.
Elsewhere, seas of 4 to 7 ft are occurring.

For the forecast W of 60W, high pressure centered NE of the area
is inducing a broad area of mainly gentle winds N of 26N. To the
south, the gradient between the high and lower pressure over the
Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic is causing mainly strong winds,
including over and near the Greater Antilles. These conditions
will prevail through the weekend, before the high moves to the
east and winds relax. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast
Sun night into Mon, then spread E over the northern waters,
bringing strong winds on both sides of it, mainly N of 28N. Low
pressure is likely to move NE off the SE U.S. coast Tue into Wed,
bringing another potential for strong winds. Large N swell
impacting the Atlantic zone from 19N-22N between 55W-65W will
diminish on Sun.

$$
KONARIK
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