[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160620
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Dec 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 03N30W to
04N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N
between the coast of Africa near 10W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico, keeping
mainly dry conditions in place. Moderate winds prevail across
the basin, except for fresh SSE off the coast of southern Texas
and fresh NE to E in the Florida Straits and SE Gulf of Mexico.
Seas of 3 to 5 ft continue across the basin, except 5-6 ft in
the Florida Straits and within the area of fresh winds offshore
Texas.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
forecast waters through Sat, supporting moderate to locally
fresh winds. A cold front is forecast to enter the basin
Saturday night into early Sunday. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas will prevail west of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A diffluent pattern aloft continues to influence scattered
showers and thunderstorms over waters south of 17N and west of
80W. The pressure gradient created from the higher pressure
centered over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over most of
the basin, including the Windward Passage. The exception is
noted in a satellite scatterometer pass showing moderate to
fresh trades within the NW Caribbean. Seas are 7 to 10 ft over
the eastern and central portion of the basin, including the
windward passage, with 5 to 8 ft seas in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will prevail over the
western
Atlantic through the forecast period. This will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the eastern and central Caribbean
through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trades are expected
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A fairly strong pressure gradient is over the western Atlantic,
between a 1037 mb high pressure near 39N66W and a 1007 mb
Colombian low near 10N76W. The pressure gradient is allowing for
fresh to strong E winds south of 29N to the Greater Antilles,
between 50W and the coast of Florida, including the Bahamas
region. A cold front enters the area near 31N45W to 28N56W and
extends northwestward to 31N66W. Strong N winds are north of the
front. A surface trough extends from 31N40W to 24N54W. Fresh N
winds are N of the trough, while gentle to moderate winds are
south of it and elsewhere east of 45W.

West of 50W, seas are generally 6-9 ft, except up to 12 ft
behind the cold front. East of 45W, seas are generally 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue west of
65W, especially south of 27N, through Thu as high pressure north
of the area builds southward. Another cold front may bring
increasing winds and seas north of 27N between 40W and Florida
by early Mon.

$$
Mora
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