[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Dec 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone to
07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to 05N21W to 05N37W to
03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N
between 26W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered over the southeastern U.S. and deep layer
dry air is supporting generally fair weather conditions over the
Gulf of Mexico. A scatterometer satellite pass noted moderate E
winds across the basin with gentle to moderate winds in the
western Gulf.  A weak trough continues to linger offshore NE
Mexico. Seas range within 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
forecast waters through the week. Fresh east winds will spread
westward through the Straits of Florida and into the eastern
Gulf S of 26N through midweek along with building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient from high pressure centered over the
southeast U.S. combined with lower pressure over Colombia is
supporting fresh winds over much of the basin, with locally
strong winds in the Windward Passage, south of Cuba and
Hispaniola, and offshore Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft,
reaching 8 ft in the areas of stronger winds. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the far SW Caribbean off the coasts of
Costa Rica and Panama in association with the East Pacific
monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will continue over the
south- central Caribbean through the week. Moderate to fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere. Strong high pressure will prevail
over the western Atlantic through the forecast period. This will
result in fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds in the
Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba, and south of Hispaniola
through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N53W to 29N59W, then transitions to
a dissipating stationary front to 29N67W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 60 nm of this boundary. Winds on both
sides of the boundary are generally moderate. Seas in this area
are in the 5 to 7 ft range. A 1031 mb Azores high is centered
near 37N30W. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and lower pressure over Africa is supporting a large
area of fresh to strong winds from 10N to 27N and between 18W to
55W. Seas are in the 7 to 13 ft range in this region.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Medium to high ash concentrations are expected near and south of
the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this
ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure prevails across the
western Atlantic in the wake of the cold front, supporting
moderate to fresh winds over the forecast waters. High pressure
will build southward from the middle to end of the week. This
will result in an increase in winds and seas by the end of the
week.

$$
Mora
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