[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132210
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Dec 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone to
07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W passing 05N34W to 02N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between
37W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from near Tampa Bay to just
offshore the Texas coast, with a trough then extending southward
to the western Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh E winds dominate
the eastern and central basin, with gentle to moderate winds in
the west. Seas are 2 to 5 ft. No significant convection is
occurring.

For the forecast, the front and trough will dissipate by tonight.
Fresh east winds will spread westward through the Straits of
Florida and into the eastern Gulf S of 26N through midweek along
with building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered along the eastern seaboard of the U.S.
combined with lower pressure over Colombia is leading to a
pressure gradient over the basin supportive of fresh winds over
much of the basin, with locally strong winds in the Windward
Passage, south of Cuba and Hispaniola, and offshore Colombia. Seas
are generally 5 to 7 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the far SW Caribbean off the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama in
association with the east Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will continue over the
south- central Caribbean through the week especially during the
overnight hours. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.
Strong high pressure will build over the western Atlantic through
the forecast period, which will result in fresh to locally strong
northeast to east winds and building seas in the Windward Passage,
the lee of Cuba, and south of Hispaniola through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 28N70W, then transitions to a
dissipating stationary front to near Fort Pierce, Florida.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along this boundary E of
63W. Winds on both sides of the boundary are generally moderate to
fresh. Seas in this area are in the 4-7 ft range. A 1031 mb
Azores high is centered near 37N31W. The pressure gradient between
this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon
trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area
of fresh to strong winds from 10N to 26N and between 18W to 55W.
Seas are in the 7 to 11 ft range in this region.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Medium to high
ash concentrations are expected near and south of the volcano. Marine
and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will dissipate
this evening and the cold front will move east of the area
tonight. High pressure will build in their wake. This will
increase winds over the forecast waters, mainly S of 25N, through
the week.

$$
KONARIK
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