[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130922
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Dec 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13.5W to 08N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N18W to 05N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 13W and 22W, and from
02N to 07N between 40W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from central Florida to near 25N95W to
the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the
Gulf waters, except for the far SW waters west of the front where
moderate to fresh winds are noted. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range
over the SW Gulf, 1-3 ft over the NE Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, patchy marine fog will lower visibility along
the NE Gulf this morning and once again Tue. The stationary front
will dissipate today. Fresh east winds will spread westward
through the Straits of Florida and to the eastern Gulf S of 26N
through midweek along with building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure is building across the eastern seaboard of the
United States. The pressure gradient between this area of building
high pressure and climatological low pressure over Colombia is
supporting fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean, and
in the lee of Cuba. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean and 3-5 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the
south- central Caribbean through the week. Moderate to fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere. High pressure will build over the
western Atlantic through the forecast period. This will result in
fresh to locally strong northeast winds and building seas in the
Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba, and south of Hispaniola through
the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to central Florida. Gentle
to moderate winds are noted north of the front with moderate to
fresh winds south of the front. Seas over this area are in the
4-7 ft range. A 1031 mb Azores high is centered near 38N33W. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ
is supporting a large area of fresh to strong winds from 10N to
25N from Africa westward to the Windward Islands. Seas over much
of this area are in the 8-11 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft prevail.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will drift southward
while gradually dissipating. High pressure will build in the wake
of the front. This will freshen winds over the forecast waters,
mainly south of 25N, through the week.

$$
AL
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