[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Dec 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 13N17W
to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to the coast of Brazil
near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the
monsoon trough to 03N between 11W and 21W, and within 210 nm N of
the ITCZ between 41W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from just south of
Tarpon Springs, Florida SW to the north-central Gulf near 26N90W
SW to the central Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
N of the front with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Northerly winds of the same
speed are W of the portion of the front to the E of Mexico, except
for fresh to strong winds off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico where
seas are 5 to 7 ft. A pre-frontal trough is between the stationary
front and the Yucatan peninsula, however with no convection.
Otherwise, moderate E winds are funneling across the Florida
Straits and gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere ahead
of the front.

For the forecast, patchy marine fog will lower visibility in the
early morning hours along the NE Gulf on Tue. The front will
continue to weaken tonight and seas will continue to subside
before the front dissipates on Mon. Fresh to strong east winds
will spread westward through the Straits of Florida and to the
eastern Gulf S of 26N Mon through midweek along with building
seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface high pressure of 1030 mb located near 36N40W in the
north-central Atlantic continues to extend a ridge to the northern
Caribbean waters, thus tightening the gradient against the
Colombian low. This scenario continues to support strong NE winds
funneling across the Windward Passage and in the southern
Dominican Republic adjacent waters as well as mainly fresh trade
winds across the SW and eastern half of the Caribbean. In the NW
basin, moderate NE to E winds dominate with seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge across
the northern Caribbean and the Colombian/Panamanian low will
support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean
through mid week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.
High pressure will continue to strengthen over the western
Atlantic through the forecast period, resulting in pulsing fresh
to locally strong northeast winds and building seas in the
Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba and south of Hispaniola through
the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic remains under the influence of a broad
high pressure regime anchored by a 1030 mb high over the north-
central Atlantic. As a result of the pressure gradient between
the subtropical ridges and lower pressures over NW Africa and the
deep tropics, fresh to strong easterly winds are found from 16N to
25N and between 24W and 57W. Seas of 7-11 ft are prevalent over a
large area in the tropical Atlantic, mainly E of 65W. Seas of 5-7
ft are found in the SW N Atlantic waters ahead of a cold front
that extends from 31N73W to Cape Canaveral or near 28N80W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds follows this front.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front is forecast to stall
and reach Central Florida tonight. This front is forecast to
dissipate over the southeastern waters on Mon night. High pressure
behind the front will bring fresh to strong northeast to east
winds mainly across the waters south of 27N by Mon night. These
conditions are expected to last through midweek.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Ramos
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