[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Dec 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from the
north-central Gulf SW to Tampico, Mexico this evening. Strong to
near gale force N-NE winds are behind the front, except along the
NE Mexico adjacent waters where gale force winds are ongoing with
seas to 11 ft. These conditions will shift to Veracruz adjacent
waters tonight before winds diminish below gale force Sun morning.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N15W to 08N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N21W to 03N33W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 03N to 11N between 13W and 21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the western Gulf.

A strong cold front extends from the north-central Gulf SW to
Tampico, Mexico and followed by strong to near gale force winds,
except along the NE Mexican adjacent waters where gale force winds
are ongoing. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft, however are forecast to
build to 12 ft during the night hours. Light to gentle variable
winds are ahead of the front, except in the Yucatan peninsula
adjacent waters where an inland surface trough supports moderate
to fresh NE to E winds.

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge extending from the
Atlantic to the central Gulf will continue to shift eastward in
response to the strong cold front that is moving across the NW
Gulf. The cold front will continue to move E to SE and will
weaken as it reaches from central Florida to the SW Gulf Sun, and
dissipate on Mon. Fresh to strong east winds will spread westward
through the Straits of Florida and to the eastern Gulf S of 26N
Mon through Tue night along with building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between strong ridging north of the
Greater Antilles and lower pressures over northern South America
is producing generally fresh to strong trades in the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea, including southern Hispaniola and the
Windward Passage. Seas of 5-7 ft are ongoing in the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are across
the NW basin where recent altimeter data show seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge across
the northern Caribbean and the Colombian/Panamanian low will
continue to support fresh to strong easterly trades over the
south-central Caribbean through the weekend and early next week.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. High pressure
will continue to strengthen over the western Atlantic through the
forecast period, resulting in pulsing fresh to locally strong
northeast winds and building seas in the Windward Passage, the lee
of Cuba and south of Hispaniola through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail of a weakening cold front extends from 31N50W to 29N54W
where a surface trough continues along to 27N64W. High pressure
dominates the remainder of the subtropical Atlantic with a strong
subtropical ridge centered in the NW Atlantic and a second robust
Azores high pressure in the NE Atlantic. As a result of the
pressure gradient between the subtropical ridges and lower
pressures over NW Africa and the deep tropics, fresh trade winds
dominate the waters S of 28N and E of 68W with locally strong
winds to the open waters NE of the Leeward Islands and region from
20N to 24N between 30W and 40W.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will gradually build
across the region producing moderate to fresh NE to E winds S of
22N, and mainly gentle to moderate winds N of 22N through tonight.
The next cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Sun,
and reach from near 31N65W to South florida by Sun night. This
front is forecast to dissipate over the southeastern waters on
Mon. High pressure behind the front will bring fresh to strong
northeast to east winds mainly across the waters south of 27N by
Mon night. These conditions are expected to last through Tue
night.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low ash
concentrations are expected in the vicinity of the volcano with
very low concentrations to the southwest. Marine and aviation
interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the
Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Ramos
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