[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Dec 08 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ extends
from the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 03N21W,
04N26W, 01N42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 02N to 10N from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 31N79W in the Atlantic Ocean, along
30N in Florida, to 29N90W and 28N95W in the northern parts of
the Gulf of Mexico, curving to 21N97W along the coast of Mexico.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 23N northward.
Moderate or slower wind speeds cover the area. The sea heights
range from 1 foot to 3 feet.

A 1019 mb high pressure center is in central Florida.

A nearly stationary front extending over the northern Gulf will
retreat inland later tonight. A ridge will build westward across
the basin, with a high pressure cell remaining over the eastern
Gulf. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow will set-up across
the western and central Gulf on Fri and Sat, ahead of a strong
cold front forecast to push off the Texas coast by Sat morning.
Increasing winds and building seas are expected in the wake of
the front. Gale conditions are possible behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge spans the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for
500 mb also shows broad anticyclonic wind flow, with an
anticyclonic circulation center near SE Cuba.

The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 10N74W, beyond
07N81W in Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 240 nm to the north
of the monsoon trough, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with broken to
overcast low level clouds, that are moving with the low level
wind flow, in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

Strong winds are within 60 nm to the north of Hispaniola between
70W and 73W. Near gale-force winds are within 210 nm of the
coast of Colombia from 77W eastward. Strong winds are within 400
nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh winds are elsewhere from 18N
southward from 83W eastward. The sea heights range from 8 feet
to 10 feet from 17N southward between 70W and 80W. The sea
heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 70W eastward. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea.

A surface ridge will extend from high pressure to the N of the
area, to the the northern Caribbean Sea. The ridge and the
Colombian low pressure will support fresh to strong trade winds
in the south central basin and in the Gulf of Venezuela through
the weekend. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere,
except in the NW Caribbean Sea where mainly gentle to moderate
winds are expected before the weekend. By Thu night into Sun
night, as high pressure strengthens in the western Atlantic
Ocean, expect fresh to locally strong NE winds in the Windward
Passage, the lee of Cuba and, and S of Hispaniola.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough passes through 31N73W, to Andros Island in the
Bahamas. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 600 nm to the east of the surface trough from
26N northward. Fresh to strong winds are within 210 nm to the
east of the surface trough from 28N northward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N54W. A
surface trough is along 30N60W 24N59W 18N57W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 20N northward between 30W and 60W.
within 300 nm to the east of the surface trough. The sea heights
range from 6 feet to 8 feet between 50W and the surface trough.
Fresh to strong winds are from 07N to 20N between 47W and 60W.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere from 20N northward between
50W and 60W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and comparatively drier
air in subsidence that is apparent in water vapor imagery, cover
the area from 20N northward from 40W eastward. An upper level
cyclonic circulation center is about 180 nm to the W of the
Canary Islands. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N
northward from 30W eastward. Strong winds are from 20N northward
between 30W and 40W, and from 09N to 22N between 40W and 50W.
Strong to near-gale force winds cover the area from 15N to 30N
between 25W and 48W. Strong winds are from 04N to 15N between
35W and 44W. Fresh to strong winds are from 25N northward from
22W eastward.

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet from 31N southward
between 24W and 50W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet
from 27N northward within 330 nm to the west of the Canary
Islands. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 30N
southward between 50W and 60W.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

A ridge will prevail along 26N-27N through the weekend. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds are expected along the southern periphery
of the ridge, especially south of 22N, including the waters just
N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage. A
stationary front in the far NW waters is forecast to move
northward tonight. The next cold front will move over the
northern forecast waters Thu and Fri while dissipating.

$$
mt/gr
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net