[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Dec 07 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ extends
from the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 07N20W,
04N30W, 02N40W, and 02N46W. Precipitation: scattered strong is
within 60 nm to 90 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 26W and
35W, and within 30 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 31W and
35W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N to
09N bewteen 37W and 44W, and within 120 nm to the south of the
ITCZ between 28W and 30W. Scattered strong is from 08N to 10N
between 50W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
north central Gulf of Mexico, to the Deep South of Texas. Strong
winds are in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the north
of the cold front. Fresh winds are within 60 nm on either side
of the cold front from 91W eastward. Moderate winds or slower
are elsewhere. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate is to the north of the cold front. The sea heights
range from 1 foot to 3 feet.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 26N85W.

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to near
Brownsville, Texas and briefly will bring fresh to locally
strong winds off the Texas coast through late tonight. The front
will stall and linger near the northern Gulf coast through
midweek. The remainder of the basin will be under the influence
of a ridge. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is expected to
develop in the western and central Gulf on Fri and Sat, ahead of
a strong cold front forecast to push off the Texas coast by Sat
morning. Increasing winds and building seas are expected in the
wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge spans the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for
500 mb also shows broad anticyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 10N74W, western
Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: little to no precipitation is apparent in
satellite imagery.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with broken to
overcast low level clouds, that are moving with the low level
wind flow, in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

Strong winds are within 60 nm to the north of Hispaniola between
70W and 73W. Near gale-force winds are within 120 nm of the
coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds
are from 17N southward between 70W and 81W. Fresh to strong
winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate winds are from 80W
westward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet within
300 nm off the coast of Colombia. The sea heights range 6 feet
to 8 feet between 63W and 83W. The sea heights range from 3 feet
to 5 feet elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central
Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Venezuela this week, between
the Colombian low and a high pressure ridge located north of the
region. Strong winds also will pulse south of Hispaniola during
the next few days. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are
expected across much of the forecast area, with gentle to
moderate winds in the NW Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 75 nm on either side of the line 32N74W 31N75W 29N76W
28N78W 25N78W. A cold front is moving through the eastern
sections of the U.S.A., including in the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough is along 31N53W 21N55W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 300 nm to the east of the surface trough. The
sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet between 50W and the
surface trough. Fresh winds are within 500 nm to the east of the
surface trough. Moderate to fresh winds are within 500 nm to the
west of the surface trough. Fresh winds are from 20N southward
between 50W and the eastern Caribbean Sea islands.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and comparatively drier
air in subsidence that is apparent in water vapor imagery, cover
the area from 14N northward from 45W eastward. An upper level
cyclonic circulation center is about 420 nm to the WSW of the
Canary Islands. Surface easterly wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 20N northward from the 31N53W 21N55W surface trough
eastward. Surface high pressure centers are to the north of the
area. Strong winds are from 20N northward between 30W and 40W,
and from 09N to 22N between 40W and 50W

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 10N northward
between 30W and 50W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet
from the Cabo Verde Islands northward between 20W and 30W. The
sea heights range from 8 to 10 feet from the Canary Islands
northward from 20W eastward. The sea heights range from 6 feet
to 8 feet from 10N southward between 30W and 50W.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

A ridge will prevail along 26N-27N through late this week.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected along the southern
periphery of the ridge, especially south of 22N, including in
the approaches to the Windward Passage. A weak cold front will
stall over the far northern waters early Tue, then lift
northward Tue night. Another cold front will move over the
northern waters on Thu, and lift northward as a warm front on
Fri.

$$
mt/gr
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net