[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060642
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Dec 06 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, to
03N22W, and 03N42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 01N to 09N from 55W eastward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 11N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of Florida, into the
NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the NW corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula, to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W.

Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds span the Gulf of Mexico.
The sea heights range from 2 foot to 3 feet, with isolated
maximum values reaching 4 feet in the west central sections of
the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure will linger in the NE Gulf through the middle of
the week. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the western
and central Gulf through the next several days, while mainly
tranquil conditions persist in the eastern Gulf. A weak cold
front will move into the Texas coastal waters Mon evening, and
bring fresh to locally strong northerly winds during the
afternoon. The front will stall, before retreating inland Tue.
The weak front will move back offshore by Wed evening, quickly
stalling again and moving back inland early Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area. The GFS model
for 500 mb shows that S wind flow is moving through the area
that is 15N northward from 80W westward. The GFS model for 700
mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation center is near 21N83W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N
northward from 80W westward.

The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 10N74W, beyond
southern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 210
nm to the south of the monsoon trough.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with broken to
overcast low level clouds, that are moving with the low level
wind flow, in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

Near gale-force winds are within 135 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 73W and 77W. Strong winds are from 17N southward between
70W and 81W. Fresh to strong winds are from 70W eastward.
Moderate winds are in the NW corner of the area from 18N
northward between 80W and 86W. Gentle or slower winds are in the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 8
feet to 9 feet within 300 nm off the coast of Colombia. The sea
heights range 6 feet to 8 feet between 63W and 83W. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the south central Caribbean
Sea, and south of Hispaniola, through the week. Moderate to
fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to
moderate in
the NW Caribbean Sea. Moderate NE to E swell in the Tropical N
Atlantic Ocean is expected to continue through Thu. Active
weather in the western Caribbean Sea will end by tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 26N
northward from 72W westward. A low pressure center and frontal
boundary are about 240 nm to the north of the precipitation.

A stationary front extends from a 1022 mb low pressure center
that is near 31N52W, to 28N51W and 25N54W. A surface trough
extends from the same 1022 mb low pressure center, to a second
1022 mb low pressure center that is near 28N55W, to 26N60W and
25N66W. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 300 nm to the NW of
the low pressure centers and the surface trough, between 51W and
58W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 210 nm to the east of the stationary front, from 23N
northward. Fresh winds are from 31N southward between 60W and
71W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and comparatively drier
air in subsidence that is apparent in water vapor imagery, cover
the area from 14N northward from 45W eastward. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 44W eastward. Strong to near gale-force winds are
between: the line from 31N at the coast of Morocco, to 31N35W
26N41W 17N52W, to the coastal border areas of Brazil and
Guyana...and the line from the coastal border areas of Suriname
and French Guiana to 09N37W 23N27W, to the southern coast of the
Western Sahara. Fresh to moderate winds cover the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean, with some areas of moderate or slower winds.

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet to the east of the
line 31N35W 13N60W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet
between the line 31N35W 13N60W and the line 31N61W 20N70W. The
sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. Mostly fresh
winds cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean, with some areas
of moderate or slower wind speeds.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

Light to gentle winds will prevail through Mon. A weak cold
front will move off northern Florida Tuesday, before stalling
and retreating northwest through Tue night. Otherwise, weak high
pressure will prevail through the middle of the week. Another
cold front will push off the northern Florida Thu before
retreating north by Friday. This will bring moderate to locally
fresh winds on Wed and Wed night. Moderate NE to E swell east of
70W will persist through Mon.

$$
mt/gr
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