[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052242
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Dec 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 04N28W to 06N42W to
06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N
between 08W and 19W, from 02N to 07N between 26W and 44W, and from
04N to 09N between 48W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge of high pressure extends from north Florida
southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds prevail across most of the basin, with seas of
1 to 3 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are present offshore
southern Texas and NE Mexico, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Cloudiness
and possible isolated showers are offshore southern Texas, with
mostly dry conditions elsewhere.

High pressure will linger across the NE Gulf through the middle
of the week. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the western
and central Gulf through the next several days while tranquil
conditions persist in the eastern Gulf. A weak cold front will
move into the Texas coastal waters Mon evening and bring fresh to
locally strong northerly winds behind the front during the
evening. The front will stall before retreating inland Tue. The
weak front will move back offshore by Wed evening, quickly
stalling again and moving back inland early Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from just east of Cozumel to the N coast
of central Honduras. Upper-level diffluence over the NW Caribbean
is enhancing scattered moderate convection to the east of the
surface trough, from 18N-21N between 82W-86W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted in the far SW Caribbean, south of 11N and
west of 77W, in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough.
Dry conditions prevail elsewhere due to subsidence. Fresh to
strong trades prevail across the Caribbean south of 18N and east
of 80W, with strong to locally near gale force off the coast of
Colombia. Seas are 5 to 8 ft, highest offshore Colombia and
eastern Panama. Moderate winds are over the W Caribbean, with 4
to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the south-
central Caribbean and south of Hispaniola through the week.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to
moderate in the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 mb high pressure near Bermuda extends surface ridging to NE
Florida, producing gentle anticyclonic winds north of 28N west of
65W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in this area. A shear line extends
southwestward from a 1020 mb low pressure near 31N51W to 25N60W to
25N66W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are west of this boundary.
Fresh trades are present north of Hispaniola to 25N and westward
through the southeastern and central Bahamas. Seas are 7-9 ft west
of the shear line north of 28N, and 6-7 ft elsewhere west of the
shear line. A stationary front extends southward from the
aforementioned 1020 mb low from 31N51W to 25N53W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 270 nm east of the front. In
the NE portion of the area, a surface trough extends from 27N26W
to 21N21W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are present from
20N-25N between 17W-24W. Strong NE winds extend NE of the trough
through the Canary Islands to the coast of Morocco. Seas are 7-10
ft north of 24N and east of 35W. Fresh trade winds prevail
elsewhere east of 40W north of the ITCZ, with 6-9 ft seas. Fresh
trades are also occurring from the ITCZ to 20N between 40W-62W.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France,
at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The latest advisory
states that ash concentration near the volcano is low at this
time.

For the forecast west of 65W, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail through Mon. A weak cold front will move off northern
Florida Tue before stalling and retreating northwest through Tue
night. Otherwise, weak high pressure will prevail through the
middle of the week. Another cold front will push off the northern
Florida coast Wed night before retreating north by Friday. This
will bring moderate to locally fresh winds north of 29N on Wed
and Wed night.

$$
Hagen
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