[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050515
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Dec 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N14W, to 06N20W
03N27W 03N44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ
between 20W and 23W, and from 01N to 04N between 44W and 46W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high
pressure center that is near 29N77W, across central Florida, to
28N88W in the Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico at the coast of Mexico near 20N97W.

Fresh NE winds are within 75 nm to the north of NW Cuba between
the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Moderate or
slower wind speeds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 1
foot to 3 feet.

High pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will shift slowly
ESE across the basin through Sun. Tranquil conditions are
expected to continue through the rest of the weekend. A weak
cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late Mon, briefly,
with moderate to locally fresh northerly winds behind it. The
front could linger through Tue night, with gentle to moderate
winds along it. The next front is expected to enter the NW Gulf
Wed and stall through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area. The GFS model
for 500 mb shows that SE wind flow is moving through the area
that is from 80W westward. The GFS model for 700 mb shows that E
wind flow is moving through the area that is from 80W westward.
An anticyclonic circulation center is on top of the Cayman
Islands, at 500 mb and at 700 mb. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong is between
NW Cuba and Honduras from 80W westward.

The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 10N74W, beyond
Panama near 08N82W, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 270 nm to the north
of the monsoon trough, and within 180 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with broken to
overcast low level clouds, that are moving with the low level
wind flow, in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh winds are in the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea.
Moderate to fresh winds are in the western half of the Caribbean
Sea. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 16N
southward between 77W and 82W. Sea heights of 6 feet are within
135 nm to the south of Hispaniola between 70W and 73W, and
elsewhere from 18N southward between 70W and 82W. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea.

Weak high pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to
fresh NE to E winds in the Caribbean Sea into next week. Fresh
winds also will pulse to strong at night off Colombia and the
Gulf of Venezuela, as well as south of Hispaniola. NE winds also
will pulse to strong near the Windward Passage tonight. Moderate
NE to E swell in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean is expected to
continue into next week. Active weather in the western Caribbean
Sea will end by Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front from the north reaches a 1018 mb low pressure
center that is near 30N52W. A warm front extends from the low
pressure center, to 30N51W. A cold front continues from 30N51W,
to 22N56W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are within 100 nm to
the east of the cold front from 25N northward. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 135 nm to
the east of the cold front, from 25N northward.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and comparatively drier
air in subsidence that is apparent in water vapor imagery, cover
the area from 15N northward from 41W eastward. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 48W eastward. Strong winds are from 24N northward
from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet
from 44W eastward, and from 20N southward between 44W and 60W.
The sea heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet from 20N northward
between 44W and the cold front. The sea heights range from 3
feet to 5 feet from the cold front westward. Mostly fresh winds
cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean, with some areas of
moderate or slower wind speeds.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation, by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

Weak high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and in the
eastern U.S., will build slowly south and east into the area
through Mon. This will support generally tranquil conditions in
the SW N Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. Moderate NE
to E swell in the Atlantic waters E of 70W is
expected to persist through Mon. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds are expected offshore of the N Florida waters Wed,
becoming light to moderate by Thu.

$$
MTorres/mmt
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