[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040940
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Dec 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent, entering the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal border
of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N17W to 04N25W to 00N36W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 11W
and 15W, and from 02N to 08N between 18W and 37W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 26W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over central Florida near 28N82W, with
a surface ridge extending across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A
surface trough extends from 26N92W to the Bay of Campeche near
19.5N90.5W. Light to gentle winds prevail across the northeast
Gulf under the ridge, with gentle to moderate elsewhere. Seas are
generally 3 ft or less, except to 4 ft NW of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, high pressure across the northern Gulf will
shift slowly ESE across the basin through Sun, supporting tranquil
conditions for the next few days. A weak cold front is expected
to briefly enter the NW Gulf late Mon then lift northward out of
the basin Tue. The next front is expected to enter the NW Gulf
Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the south central Caribbean,
and in the lee of eastern Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere, highest south of Hispaniola and through the Windward
Passage. Seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range over the south central
Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 3 to 5 ft over the
eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
from 10N to 18N between 78W and 85W, as well as in the SW
Caribbean south of 10.5N.

For the forecast, weak high pressure north of the area will
maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean into
next week, with fresh winds pulsing to strong at night off
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, as well as south of
Hispaniola. NE winds will also pulse to strong near the Windward
Passage early this morning and again tonight. Moderate NE to E
swell over the Tropical N Atlantic is expected to continue for the
next several days. Active weather will continue across the
western Caribbean through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high is centered over central Florida near 28N82W with a
ridge extending east-northeast toward Bermuda. Light to gentle
winds are under the ridge north of 27N and west of 65W, along with
mainly 2 to 4 ft seas, except 5 to 6 ft along 31N in northerly
swell. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are south of 27N and west
of 65W, along with 4 to 5 ft seas. A surface trough is in the
central Atlantic from 31N58W to 21N63W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms and fresh S to SW winds are noted within 360 nm east
of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds are within 180 nm west of
the trough. A weak pressure pattern and light winds are from 20N
to 24N between 55W and 65W. A tight pressure gradient south of
the Azores high is supporting fresh to strong winds north of 13N
and east of 30W. Seas over this area are in the 8 to 11 ft range.
Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades and seas in the 5 to 8 ft
range prevail elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, weak high pressure across the
northern Gulf of Mexico and eastern U.S. will slowly build south
and east into the area through early next week, supporting
generally tranquil conditions over the SW N Atlantic for the next
several days. Moderate NE to E swell over the Atlantic waters E of
70W is expected for the next several days. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are expected offshore of the N Florida waters Wed.

$$
Lewitsky
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