[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Dec 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent, reaching into the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and to 09N16W. The ITCZ continues from 09N16W
to 04N26W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03N to 18N between 14W and 25W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 25W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough extends from 27N90W to 24N88W. High pressure is
centered near 28N92W, with ridge extending eastward across the
northern Gulf and northern Florida, and ridge extending southward
to the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high center, with mainly gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain across the N Gulf
and dominate the basin through Sun, supporting tranquil
conditions for the next few days. A weak cold front should enter
the NW Gulf on Mon and quickly move across N waters on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from Jamaica southward to 13N77W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed
within 240 nm east of the trough. Fresh to strong winds prevail
over the south central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are
over the NE Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range over the central
Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over
the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain
only moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean into
next week, with nighttime fresh to strong winds pulsing off
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh NE winds
will also be possible over the Windward Passage Fri night through
Sat night. Moderate NE swell over the tropical N Atlantic is
expected for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N54W to 27N59W. A
surface trough extends from 30N74W to 27N75W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted between these features. A large are of strong
winds is noted north of 15N off the coast of Africa to near 30W.
Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over this area. Fresh to strong
winds are elsewhere north of 08N and to 27N east of 50W. Seas
over this are are also in the 8-10 ft range. Gentle to moderate
winds, and seas of 4-7 ft are elsewhere over the tropical and
subtropical waters north of 20N. Over the remainder of the
tropical waters south of 20N, moderate to fresh winds and seas of
6-8 ft prevail.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will build south and
east into the area through early next week, supporting tranquil
conditions over the SW N Atlantic for the next several days.
Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off of the Florida
coast on Tue. Moderate E swell over the Atlantic from 19N-22N
between 55W-65W is expected for the next several days.

$$
AL
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