[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Dec 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent, reaching the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and extending to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N16W to 03N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 16W and 24W, from 05N
to 08N between 31W and 34W, and from 03N to 05N between 40W and
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by 1022 mb high pressure centered over southeast Alabama
and southwest Georgia. Moist onshore flow is assisting development
of areas of dense fog within 30 nm of the coast of southwest
Louisiana. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate
to fresh winds just north of the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to
moderate E winds are noted elsewhere across the south-central
Gulf, north of a surface trough analyzed along the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Light to gentle breezes are noted
elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 4 ft near the Yucatan Peninsula, and 1 to
3 ft elsewhere. Other than the aforementioned fog, no major
weather is noted.

For the forecast, high pressure building across the northern Gulf
will dominate the basin through Sun, supporting light breezes
over the northeast Gulf and gentle to moderate E to SE winds
elsewhere through Sun. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may enter
the northern Gulf Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted over the
central Caribbean along a surface trough extending the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia to southern Haiti. Trade wind convergence
is supporting scattered showers north of Panama along the monsoon
trough. No other shower or thunderstorm activity is evident at
this time across the basin. High pressure north of the area is
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
across all but the far northwest part of the Caribbean, with fresh
to strong winds and seas to 8 ft off Colombia. Light to gentle E
breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted over the far northwest
Caribbean west of 85W.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will
continue to maintain generally moderate to fresh NE to E winds
across the Caribbean into early next week, with fresh to strong
winds pulsing off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at
night. Moderate to fresh NE winds will also be possible over the
Windward Passage and Mona Passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid/upper level trough is supporting a line of thunderstorms
over the Gulf Stream east of northeast Florida, north of 30N along
roughly 78W. A weakening stationary front reaches from 31N55W to
28N60W. High pressure is building west of the front, supporting
gentle to moderate E to SE flow west of 55W, with 4 to 6 ft seas
in open waters. Farther east between 35W and 55W, strong 1036
high pressure over the Azores Islands is maintaining a broad area
of fresh to strong trade winds south of 25N with 7 to 11 ft
seas, and moderate E to SE winds north of 25N with 6 to 9 ft seas
in E swell. East 35W fresh to strong NW winds and 8 to 11 ft seas
persist.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will continue to
build south and east into the area into the weekend, supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N by Sat.

$$
Christensen
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