[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Dec 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.


Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system centered a couple
of hundred miles northwest of the Madeira Islands continues to
produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms well to the
east of the center. This low has changed little in organization
over the last 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected
to be only marginally conducive for it to acquire subtropical
characteristics over the next day or so as it drifts
southwestward. Afterwards, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development. Regardless of subtropical
development, this system will continue to produce strong winds
and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands through Tuesday.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France. Their website is:
www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force winds are occurring over
Veracruz adjacent waters and in the Bay of Campeche. These
conditions will continue through tonight as the front continues
moving southeast and out of the basin. Please read the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
10N13W to 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 06N30W to 06N40W to
the coast of N Brazil near 04N51W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 03N-12N between 14W-32W, and from 05N-09N
between 37W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning currently in effect for the SW Gulf.

A cold front is over the Straits of Florida from 25N80W to beyond
W Cuba near 23N82W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
front. Elsewhere, overcast low clouds and scattered showers are
over the Bay of Campeche S of 21N. A 1028 mb high is over S
Texas
near 29N98W producing surface ridging over the remainder of the
Gulf of Mexico.

In the wake of a the Straits of Florida cold front, strong winds
and high seas will gradually diminish into Tue. Ongoing gale
conditions off Veracruz will end overnight. Expect strong SE
winds ahead of a second front entering the northwest Gulf late
Wed. This front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay
of Campeche Thu, with gales again likely off Veracruz. The front
will reach from the Florida Peninsula to Yucatan Peninsula Fri,
then move SE of the Gulf Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a cold front extends from W Cuba near 23N82W to
N Guatemala near 17N90W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of
the front. Further S, numerous strong convection is over the SW
Caribbean S of 13N between 76W-82W. This convection is
accompanied with fresh to locally strong winds and building seas
to 9 ft.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most
of the basin through late week. The cold front over the NW
Caribbean will move E through Tue, then weaken and stall Wed
from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. The front will be
followed by fresh to locally strong NW winds and building seas
through Wed. Looking ahead, another front may enter the Yucatan
Channel by late Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on low
pressure in the far eastern Atlantic NW of the Madeira Islands.

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N76W to the Straits of
Florida near 25N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
front. Over the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from
31N46W to 22N50W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 22N
between 43W-49W.

The W Atlantic cold front will be accompanied by strong to near
gale force winds on both sides of its boundary through Tue. The
front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by Wed, and stall
and dissipate from 25N65W to western Cuba through late week.
Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the coast of
northeast Florida Sat.

$$
Formosa
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