[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270951
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Nov 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocean near
27N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the center
from 20N to 31N between 47W and 58W. This well-defined, non-
tropical low pressure is not expected to develop through tonight
due to unfavorable upper-level winds, but environmental conditions
are likely to become somewhat more conducive for the low to aquire
subtropical characteristics this weekend, while it moves NE, well
E of Bermuda. By early next week, the system will interact with or
become absorbed by a cold front and conditions will become
unfavorable for further development. There is a medium chance of
tropical formation in the next 48 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections
of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 08N17W and 08N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N18W, to 04N30W, and to 03N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm either side of the
the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Dry conditions and high pressure dominate the Gulf of Mexico early
this morning as a previously stationary front along the northern
Gulf coast has lifted north as a warm front.

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat
night, quickly reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near
25N90W and the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun evening and to
southeast of the Gulf by Mon evening. The front will be followed
by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas. These
conditions will diminish Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is occurring S of 13N W of 77W in
the far SW Caribbean along the extension of the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough. Otherwise, with high pressure north of the area
and low pressure over South and Central America, fresh trade winds
prevail.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of
the basin into early next week. A cold front will reach the NW
Caribbean Mon evening and extend from eastern Cuba to near the
border of Honduras and Nicaragua late Tue. The front will be
followed by fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas.
Winds and seas are expected to diminish Tue. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are likely to precede the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for information on the
low pressure SE of Bermuda. Over the eastern Atlantic, a 1029 mb
high pressure centered near 33N35W is dominating weather, whereas
in the western Atlantic, a ridge extending from the north Atlantic
across Bermuda and into the Bahamas is dominating area weather.
Scattered trade wind showers are occurring in and around the
Bahamas.

High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to
Florida will weaken through Sat as a weakening cold front moves
across the western part of the area. Southerly winds will increase
over the NW waters beginning Sun afternoon as a strong cold front
approaches. The front will move off NE Florida Mon, reach from
near 31N77W to South Florida by early Mon evening and from near
31N70W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to
strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind
the front. Winds diminish late Tue, with the highest seas shifting
to northeast of the Bahamas by late Tue. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are likely to precede the front.

$$
KONARIK
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