[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Nov 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 05N45W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W
Africa from 02N-07N between 00W-15W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the ITCZ from 03N-12N between 30W-42W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between
50W-63W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 26/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida
Panhandle near 31N87W to S Louisiana near 29N91W. A stationary
front continues to S Texas near 27N98W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the front. An Atlantic ridge noses into the
eastern Gulf. Upper level zonal flow covers the Gulf.

The front will lift back north as a warm front tonight. A
strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf waters on Sun
morning, quickly reach from the Florida western panhandle to
near 25N90W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun evening and
to southeast of the Gulf by Mon evening. The front will be
followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is over E Honduras and E Nicaragua.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW
Caribbean S of 11N between 77W-83W. Elsewhere, scattered showers
are over the Windward Islands S of 14N. Upper-level anticyclonic
wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea, from Hispaniola westward.

High pressure north of the region will increase winds and seas
in the central Caribbean today. Moderate to fresh trade winds
will continue across most of the basin through Sun. A strong
cold front will reach the northwestern Caribbean Mon night
followed by fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the
front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N56W to a 1015 mb low near
28N57W. A cold front extends S from the low to 25N55W to
20N56W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the system from
20n-35N between 47W-56W. A 1032 mb high is over the E Atlantic
near 36N33W.

High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward
to Florida will weaken through Sat as a weakening cold front
moves across the western part of the area. Southerly winds will
begin to increase over the northwest waters beginning Sun
afternoon as a strong cold front moves from the Gulf of Mexico
to across northern Florida. The front will move off the
northeast Florida coast Mon and reach from near 31N77W to South
Florida by early Mon evening. Fresh to strong northwest winds
and building seas will follow in behind the front. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the front.
Northerly swell will continue to propagate through the Atlantic
waters and passages through Fri.

$$
Formosa
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