[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Nov 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the northern coastal
sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N24W. The ITCZ axis
continues from 05N24W to 06N38W to the coast of far NW Brazil
near 04N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N-09N between 13W-17W, from 04N-07N between 35W-
40W, from 09N-12N between 35W-40W, and from 07N-10N between 57W-
61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from along the southern Mississippi River
to near Shreveport, Louisiana to near Baffin Bay, Texas. A
prefrontal squall line is noted on radar from near New Orleans,
Louisiana to across south-central Louisiana into the southwest
Louisiana coastal waters. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 30 nm of the squall line. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are over South Florida and the southeastern
Gulf, extending northwest to the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to
locally fresh SE return flow prevails across the basin late this
afternoon, except shifting moderate northerly winds behind the
cold front.

High pressure over the eastern Gulf will gradually shift
eastward as a the cold front moves east-southeast the northern
Gulf waters tonight. The front will stall and lift northward on
Thu. A weak cold front may move into the north-central and
northeast Gulf coastal waters Fri night, stalling through Sat. A
strong cold front will move into the northwest Gulf waters Sun
morning returning fresh to strong northerly winds across the
basin behind it. The front is forecast to shift southeast of the
basin Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is along the coast and just
offshore from Colombia to Panama northward to Honduras.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, and Hispaniola mostly due to the now dissipated tail end
of a cold front over the W Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE-E flow
is noted south of Hispaniola to 15N, northwest of the coast of
Colombia, and across the Windward Passage due to building high
pressure north of the area and lower pressure over northern
Colombia and the southwest Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh
trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft across the areas of
fresh to strong winds, and mainly 4-6 ft elsewhere.

The fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean will persist
through Thu. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across
most of the area Thu night into early next week. Looking ahead,
a cold front may move southeast of the Yucatan Channel into the
northwest Caribbean Mon through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N55W to a 1016 mb low pressure area
near 31N56W to another low pressure area 1015 mb near 26N59W to
north of the Virgin Islands near 21N64W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted north of 21N between 47W-
57W. A 1036 mb high is centered well north of the area southeast
of Nova Scotia near 44N59W. This high extends a ridge
southwestward to across the Florida Peninsula. Fresh to strong
winds are noted west of the front to 65W due to a tight pressure
gradient between the ridging and low pressure areas along the
front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere under the ridge
and behind the front. Seas are 8-13 ft across the area of fresh
to strong winds, and 6-10 ft elsewhere west of the front, except
3 ft or less west of the Bahamas. A 1034 mb high is centered
over the Azores near 38N31W. This high and attendant ridging
dominates the remainder of the waters north of the ITCZ and east
of the cold front.

The cold front over the central Atlantic will shift slowly
eastward this evening, then become stationary by Thu. The fresh
to strong winds just west of the front will prevail through Thu.
The large seas in northerly swell behind the front is expected
to continue to impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages
through Fri. The stalled out front will linger into the weekend,
becoming a remnant trough. A weak backdoor cold front may drop
south of 31N late Sat night into Sun, stalling and dissipating
along 27N by Sun evening. A stronger cold front will move into
the waters off the southeast U.S. coast Mon through early next
week.

$$
Lewitsky
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