[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Nov 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, from 18N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are near the
wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 76W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave combined with a mid-
upper level trough is producing scattered moderate convection
from 18N- 20N between 73W- 80W, including the Windward Passage.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 88/89W, from 19N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave extends southward into
the EPAC region. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is seen S of 19N between 84W-89W. This convective activity is
affecting the Gulf of Honduras and parts of Belize and northern
Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 09N13W
to 08N25W. The ITCZ continues from 08N25W to 03N41W to 04N51W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
02N-10N between 13W-22W. Isolated moderate to strong is from
05N-08N between 33W-40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 04N-10N between 50W-60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing moderate to
fresh easterly winds across the eastern half of the Gulf and
gentle to moderate winds over the western half of the basin. Seas
are in the 5-8 ft range based on buoys observations. Patches of
low level clouds are noted across the region moving westward. Low
level clouds are also banking up against the Sierra Madre
Mountains in Mexico.

Winds and seas are forecast to diminish across the Gulf region
today. A weak cold front will move across the NE Gulf Mon.
Another weak cold front may move into the northern Gulf for the
middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are analyzed in the Caribbean Sea. Please,
see Tropical Waves section for details.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the NW Caribbean, including
the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere,
except for the far SW Caribbean where light to gentle winds
prevail in the vicinity of the monsoon trough.

Winds and seas will diminish across the NW Caribbean through
tonight as high pressure north of the area weakens. Large
northerly swell will impact the tropical Atlantic waters east of
the Leeward Islands through Mon. Trade winds will increase over
the central Caribbean Tue through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted across the regional waters E
of Florida, the Bahamas, and over the Straits of Florida.

A surface trough is analyzed from 28N66W to 22N73W. Abundant
cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is noted in
association with this trough. Moderate to fresh winds are seen on
either side of the trough axis. This trough will drift westward
through late Mon. A non-tropical area of low pressure could form
near the northern end of the trough over the western Atlantic
early next week. This system would only have a brief time period
to develop subtropical characteristics before it merges with a
cold front as it accelerates northeastward by the middle of next
week. The cold front will move into the NW waters east of
northern Florida on Monday. High pressure in the wake of the
front will bring another round of fresh NE-E winds across the SW
N Atlantic Tue night into Wed.

Farther east, 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 28N29W. Fresh
to locally strong NE winds are noted near the northern end of
the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
Atlantic forecast region.

Over the tropical waters south of 20N, fresh to strong winds
prevail west of 50W, where large northerly swell is propagating
across the area bringing seas to 11 ft. This large northerly
swell will continue to impact these waters through Mon. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the tropical
waters S of 20N and E of 50W.

$$
AL
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