[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Nov 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 61W, from 17N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm of the wave axis from 11N to 15N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 75W, from 19N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 18N between 71W
and 79W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 88W, from 19N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is moving into
Central America, and numerous moderate to strong convection is
from 15N to 19N between 86W and 89W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 09N13W
to 07N26W to 05N32W. The ITCZ continues from 05N32W to 01N43W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N
between 13W and 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf, anchored by high
pressure centered over Alabama. A surface trough is analyzed in
the SW Gulf from 23N97W to 19N90W in Yucatan. Widely scattered
showers are across the basin, from 21N to 27N between 84W and 97W.

Winds and seas will continue to diminish today in the southern
Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida. A weak cold front will
move across the NE Gulf on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are analyzed in the Caribbean Sea. One is
enering the basin near 61W, and another is exiting near 88W. See
thr tropical waves section above for more details on these waves.
Scattered moderate showers are noted from 15N to 19N between 71W
and 83W, scattered moderate to strong showers are evident from 09N
to 12N between 76W and 82W, and numerous moderate to strong
convection is from 15N to 19N between 86W and 89W.

The eastward extension of the Pacific Ocean monsoon trough runs
from 08N82W in Panama to 11N76W near the coast of Colombia.
Scattered moderate to strong showers associated with the monsoon
trough are evident from 09N to 12N between 76W and 82W.

Winds and seas will diminish across the NW Caribbean Sea through
tonight as high pressure north of the area weakens. Large
northerly swell will impact the tropical Atlantic waters east of
the Leeward Islands through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N60W to 29N64W. A surface
trough extends north-northeast of Hispaniola from 19N69W to
24N68W to 27N66W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
covers a large area from within 300 nm north of, and 150 nm south
of, a line from 31N50W to 20N73W.

A 1019 mb low pressure center is near 26N30W. A 1016 mb low
pressure center is near 31N29W. A surface trough is analyzed from
32N30W to 29N29W to 27N29W. An area of scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is east of the low centers, from 28N to 33N
between 21W and 25W. Widely scattered trade wind showers are noted
from 06N to 13N between 30W and 55W.

The trough north-northeast of Hispaniola will drift westward today.
High pressure northwest of the trough will support fresh to strong
NE to E winds across most of the region through tonight. The trough
may become a weak low pressure area by early next week. A weak
cold front will move into the NW waters east of northern Florida
on Monday.

$$
Mundell
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