[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front is along 31N57W 26N65W 23N77W, and then the front
is stationary from 23N77W to 23N80W. Expect NE winds, 20 to 30
knots, in the area that is bounded by the points: from 21N75W TO
23N81W TO 31N80W TO 31N63W TO 27N63W TO 21N75W, including in the
Straits of Florida. Frequent gusts to 35 knots from 22N to 27N
to the west of the front. The sea heights will range from 8 feet
to 11 feet, except from 8 feet to 14 feet in the Gulf Stream.
Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A stationary front spans the Yucatan Channel. Expect NE to E
winds 20 knots to 30 knots, with frequent gusts to 35 knots, in
the area that is bounded by: 20N77W TO 18N80W TO 18N88W TO
22N87W TO 23N82W TO 20N77W, including in the Yucatan Channel.
The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 10 feet, except for
the range from 10 feet to 12 feet, in the Yucatan Channel.
Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

.GULF OF MEXICO STATIONARY FRONT JUST SE OF AREA. WITHIN 23N80W
TO 21N89W TO 22N96W TO 28N91W TO 29N83W TO 23N80W...INCLUDING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KT IN STRAITS
OF FLORIDA.


The remnant low pressure center of Iota is in the eastern
Pacific Ocean near 13N 91.5W, about 90 nm to 100 nm to the west
of El Salvador. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 150 nm to 600 nm of the center in the E semicircle.
Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/45W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: any
nearby precipitation also is related to the ITCZ precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is from 11N to 20N, from 150 nm to 600 nm to the east
of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/76W, from Haiti
southward to N Colombia, moving westward 10 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 480
nm to the east of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N11W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W, to
05N24W, 03N29W, to 02N43W. The ITCZ has another segment from 05N
to 06N between 46W and 53W along the coast of French Guiana.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is from 04N to 10N between 33W and 56W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 07N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the coast of Cuba along 80W,
through the Yucatan Channel, across the Yucatan Peninsula, into
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico to the northern coast of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Clouds and possible
precipitation are from the frontal boundary southward.

A surface ridge passes through Louisiana, to Mexico near 21N98W,
to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

Strong winds, frequent gusts to gale force, and building seas
can be expected through tonight, across the central Gulf of
Mexico, and in the Straits of Florida, as high pressure builds
to the north of the
area, behind a front that is stalling across the Yucatan
Channel. The winds and seas will diminish through late Saturday
across the basin. A weak cold front will move into the northwest
Gulf of Mexico, and stall from late Sunday through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnant low pressure center of Iota is in the eastern
Pacific Ocean near 13N 91.5W, about 90 nm to 100 nm to the west
of El Salvador. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 600 nm to 630 nm of the center in the eastern
semicircle. The precipitation covers parts of Central America
and the western and northwestern parts of the Caribbean Sea. The
remnants of Iota are expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations through Thursday. This rainfall will lead to
significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, and
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 11N80W, in the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 310 nm of
the center in the SE semicircle.
Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur
during the next several days, while it drifts WSW or W, in the
SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Areas of heavy rain are possible
during the next several days, from Nicaragua southward, from
Central America into Colombia. It is possible that these rains
may cause new flooding concerns, especially in areas that
already have become inundated from ETA and other rains. Please,
read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml, for more details.

The current stationary front, that is in the Yucatan Channel,
will dissipate gradually, through Friday. High pressure,
building to the north of the front, will support strong winds,
frequent gusts to gale force, and large seas, in the far
northwestern Caribbean Sea during the overnight hours.
These winds and seas will diminish through Friday, as the high
pressure weakens. Expect generally moderate trade winds, and
slight to moderate seas, across the basin by early next week.
Large
northerly swell will impact the Atlantic waters off the Leeward
Islands, into Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N56W, to 29N60W 25N70W, across the
central Bahamas, to 23N77W. The front becomes stationary, and it
continues through the Yucatan Channel, to the Yucatan Peninsula,
and to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated to widely
scattered strong, is within 180 nm to the SE of the front, from
23N northward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere, within 315 nm to
the S and SE of the frontal boundary, from Cuba northeastward.

A stalling cold front, that extends from 28N65W to western Cuba,
will stall completely by late Thursday. The front will move
northward, and dissipate, through Friday. High pressure to the
north of the area will support fresh to strong NE-E winds in
most of the region through Friday. Expect frequent gusts to gale
force from 22N to 27N, from tonight through Thursday night. A
surface trough will form to the east of the Bahamas, starting on
Friday night. It is possible that weak low pressure center may
form between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda, by early next
week. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the following
website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml, for more details.

$$
mt
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