[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 170844
TCDAT1

Hurricane Iota Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020

Iota made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane along the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua around 0340 UTC, near the town of Haulover.
Iota's landfall location was about 12 nmi south of where Category 4
Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this month on November 3rd. Due
to the previous damage caused by Eta, wind reports have been
extremely limited. There was an amateur radio report from Club de
Radio-Experimentadores de Nicaragua of 124 mph (200 Km/h) winds and
roofs damaged in the town of Wilbi, Nicaragua. However, it is
uncertain if these were sustained winds or wind gusts. At the Puerto
Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport at 0253 UTC, a sustained wind of 72 kt
(134 km/h) and a gust to 98 kt (182 km/h) were measured. The initial
intensity of 90 kt is based on the Decay-SHIPS model's weakening
rate for inland tropical cyclones, and the remnant eye feature
still noted in infrared satellite imagery.

Iota is moving westward, or 270/08 kt. Iota is expected to continue
moving generally westward today into early Wednesday, as the cyclone
moves along he southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge
located over the northern Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and
southeastern Mexico. The lower levels of the ridge are forecast to
push southward behind a cold front, which will force Iota and its
remnants west-southwestward across southern Honduras and El Salvador
in the 24-36 hour period. Iota is expected to dissipate by 48 hours,
with the remnant mid-level circulation possibly drifting westward
into the eastern North Pacific basin. The new NHC track forecast is
essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and
closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and
FSSE.

Additional rapid weakening is forecast for the next 36 hours as Iota
moves farther inland over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and
Honduras. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance.

Although Hurricane Iota has moved inland, damaging winds are
occurring inland, and also along the northeastern coast of
Nicaragua, where a significant storm surge of 5-10 ft is still
likely occurring. In addition to the destructive winds and storm
surge, there will be the potential for up to 30 inches of rainfall.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is moving across
the same general location that Category 4 Hurricane Eta did a
little less than two weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1.  Iota is still a significant hurricane. Damaging winds and a
life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the
coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where
a hurricane warning is in effect.

2.  Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane
Eta’s recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially
catastrophic impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 13.7N  84.3W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
 12H  17/1800Z 13.8N  85.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/0600Z 13.8N  87.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/1800Z 13.7N  89.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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