[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT31 KNHC 161451
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...IOTA BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 82.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the north coast of Honduras from west of Punta Castilla to the
Guatemala/Honduras border, including the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the
Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Iota was located by
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 13.5
North, longitude 82.0 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9
mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast through landfall.
After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected.
On the forecast track, the core of Iota will make landfall within
the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua tonight, and
will dissipate over central America by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Iota is forecast to continue to be a catastrophic category
5 hurricane when it approaches Central America tonight, and rapid
weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 917 mb (27.08 inches)
based on Air Force reconnaissance data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND:  Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua
tonight with tropical storm conditions expected by this afternoon.
Hurricane conditions are likely occurring on the island of
Providencia, with tropical storm conditions expected through this
afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the island
of San Andres, with hurricane conditions possible.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in
Nicaragua by late afternoon and in the warning area in Honduras
by tonight.

RAINFALL:  Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern
Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of
30 inches (750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF:  Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net