[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT31 KNHC 152335
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
700 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...IOTA STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-
THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 79.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 79.8 West. Iota is moving toward
the west near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected through landfall.  After landfall, a westward to
west-southwestward motion is forecast.  On the forecast track, the
core of Iota will pass near or over Providencia island late tonight
or Monday, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area in
northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is expected during the next
24 hours, and Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category
4 hurricane when it approaches Central America.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL:  Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Friday morning:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16
inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500
to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

Northern Colombia:  An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm).

WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's
eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua
and Honduras area beginning late Monday with tropical storm
conditions expected Monday morning.  Hurricane conditions are
expected on the island of Providencia overnight with tropical storm
conditions expected this evening. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin on the island of San Andres later this evening
with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in
Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by
Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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