[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT31 KNHC 151748
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
100 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
IOTA...
...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
WINDS, A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS
TO CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 78.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 315 MI...520 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 78.9 West. Iota is moving toward
the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected through landfall.  After landfall, a westward to
west-southwestward motion is forecast.  On the forecast track, the
core of Iota will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today,
pass near or over Providencia island late tonight or Monday, and
approach the coasts of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras
within the hurricane warning area late Monday.

Maximum sustained are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours, and Iota
is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when
it approaches Central America.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL:  Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Friday morning:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16
inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500
to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

Northern Colombia:  An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm).

WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's
eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua
and Honduras area beginning late Monday with tropical storm
conditions beginning Monday morning.  Hurricane conditions are
expected on the island of Providencia overnight with tropical
storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this
evening with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras
by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two.  Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras tonight and Monday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Blake
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